Rishad Tobaccowala, futurist and author of Rethinking Work, joins Shawn to unravel the dynamics of power, talent, and trust in a decentralized, AI-driven future. This conversation exposes the seismic shifts dismantling traditional jobs, the rise of talent over capital, and why trust—rooted in truth and integrity—is the ultimate currency for brands and leaders. From technology’s promise to demographic realities, Rishad delivers a wake-up call for navigating the unbundled world of work.
Background
Rishad Tobaccowala, a global strategist, spearheaded digital transformation at Publicis Groupe for 37 years. Now a speaker, advisor, and author of Rethinking Work and Restoring the Soul of Business, he guides leaders on technology and human values. His Substack, with 30,000+ subscribers including global CxOs, offers sharp insights. Key lessons from his work include decentralizing work, empowering talent over capital, and building trust through integrity in an AI age.
Highlights
Music in this episode by More Ghost Than Man.
Background
Rishad Tobaccowala, a global strategist, spearheaded digital transformation at Publicis Groupe for 37 years. Now a speaker, advisor, and author of Rethinking Work and Restoring the Soul of Business, he guides leaders on technology and human values. His Substack, with 30,000+ subscribers including global CxOs, offers sharp insights. Key lessons from his work include decentralizing work, empowering talent over capital, and building trust through integrity in an AI age.
Highlights
- Peak Jobs Are Over: By 2030, U.S. jobs could drop by a third due to automation, but work will explode outside traditional roles, driven by a 1.6 fertility rate and technologies like AI and blockchain.
- Five Forces Unbundling Work: Societal/demographic shifts, technology (AI, blockchain, XR), marketplaces (Upwork, Etsy), gig work, and COVID’s redefinition of purpose decentralize work.
- Trust as Currency: AI becomes table stakes; trust, built on integrity (aligned words, beliefs, actions, and truth), sets brands and leaders apart.
- Talent Trumps Capital: Technology empowers individuals to own content and data via platforms like Substack and blockchain, shifting power to “companies of one.”
- 2027 Ecosystem: A “whales” (e.g., NVIDIA) and “plankton” (small firms) model emerges, with fewer employees and AI-driven strategies.
- “We’ve seen peak jobs… by the end of this decade, we will have maybe a third fewer jobs than currently exist.”
- “Trust is what somebody earns… integrity is when what you say, what you believe, and what you do are completely aligned. And is it true?”
- “Technology is the leverage that allows David to bring down Goliath. Power is moving to talent over capital.”
- “The future is already here, but it’s not evenly distributed… Talent is evenly distributed, but opportunity is not.” (paraphrasing William Gibson)
- Rethinking Work by Rishad Tobaccowala (HarperCollins): https://www.harpercollins.com/products/rethinking-work-rishad-tobaccowala
- Restoring the Soul of Business by Rishad Tobaccowala (HarperCollins): https://www.harpercollins.com/products/restoring-the-soul-of-business-rishad-tobaccowala
- Rishad Tobaccowala’s Substack: https://rishad.substack.com
- Rishad on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rishadtobaccowala/
- Rishad’s website: https://rishadtobaccowala.com/
Music in this episode by More Ghost Than Man.
[00:00:04]
Shawn Yeager:
Rashad, welcome. Thank you very much, sir. I appreciate you taking the time today. As we were discussing before we got started, though book tours are not quite what they used to be, I'm sure your schedule is packed, with the work to promote your fantastic new book Rethinking Work. And that is actually where I'd like to begin. I've read it. It's great. I recommend it wholeheartedly. It has given me quite genuinely a lot to think about with regard to my own career and the trajectory that it might take over the next five to ten years.
I might not expect you to frame it this way, but I would assert and would love to get your take on this, Rishad, that a central theme, if not the central theme effectively, is the decentralization of work. Would you start by highlighting the major themes of the book for those who may not have read it and talk about what unbundled work, my words perhaps, although I think you used that word, what does unbundled work look like?
[00:01:06] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Absolutely. So, yes, I do agree that the decentralization slash unbundling, of work is a central theme of the book. So I'm gonna begin with a line, which is as follows. I believe that we are or have seen the moment, what I call as peak jobs, definitely in the Western world, but definitely in The United States. So I believe we are now about to see high single digit to low double digit decline of jobs occurring every year. The next few. Which basically means that it is very likely by the end of this decade, let's say if it's just single digits, in the next five or six years or the end of the next decade or this decade, we will have maybe a third fewer jobs that currently exist.
That is pretty significant if you think about it. Now that's my opening statement. My second statement so my first statement is we've seen big jobs, and we are in the beginning of the decline of jobs, is we are about to see the most amazing increase in work to be done. And I believe the central thesis of modern corporations and a lot of the economy has been that we have equated jobs and work as the same thing. And I believe the jobs happen to be a receptacle where work gets done, and it was a dominant receptacle and remains a dominant receptacle today, but far less dominant today than it was, let's say, ten, fifteen years ago.
And it will be the minor vehicle of how people find work. They'll find work primarily outside a job even though they may have a job. So the underlying thesis of the book is we have to rethink work versus, if you note, I didn't call it rethinking jobs. Jobs. So Absolutely. That's the central and as a result, the forces so someone would say, Rishad, okay. You clearly have drunk a lot and have started to sort of hyperventilate and lose the plot. All of which is all possible. But I start the book with five forces, which I believe are driving the future of work. They're intertwined, but I try to tease them out, but they connect to each other. One which is the largest one, and I think the most significant one, the one least paid attention to, is societal and demographic changes. So I'll give you just five statistics or the listeners' five statistics.
All of which are and my book was published by Harper Collins, so every single statement is fact checked. So it's not like I just made these up. And each one has a link to where I got it from. But, a, the I'm gonna focus on The US, but this is true in every country in the world outside of seven. So number one, US population is about to decline, and it has never declined. But now it's about to go into decline. And every business and every business plan thinks that they're gonna have more people, but this is no longer true. It takes 2.1 children per woman to keep the population the same in The United States. That number currently is 1.6.
The only reason The US population is flat is between one point six and two point one is legal and illegal immigration. You step down on illegal immigration, you're gonna have a decline. You step down or lessen legal and illegal immigration, you're gonna really begin to have a decline. So one way of solving the job or the job with the housing crisis is to build more jobs or to build more houses. The other one is to have fewer people who need houses. We don't I don't think people realize this, but that's our solution. We're just gonna have a declining population.
And to anticipate what that means, you have to go to Europe to see most of the countries in Europe have a 1.3 number, not a 1.6 number. China has a 1.1 number, and Korea has a point eight. So you're seeing, obviously, lot of unoccupied housing in China in part because of mobile building, but in part because there's nobody the population is now stalled and starting to decline. You're seeing nursery, kindergarten schools closing all across Korea. There's nobody to go to them? So that's one. Second is aging populations. In The US, Eleven Thousand Five Hundred people go on to Medicare every day. Third is generational mindset shifts.
66% of baby boomers like me believe in capitalism. Twenty two percent in gen of Gen z believe in capitalism. Sixty seven percent of Gen z who have a full time job have a side gig or side hustle, and 76% of Gen z wanna work for themselves. Nobody talks about that. They're talking about going back to the office, which is the biggest red herring in the entire world. It's got nothing to do with the future of work. Okay? So that's how this starts. Then it talks about technology. Obviously, those exist where I bring up not just AI, but I bring up Blockchain and XR, which is new ways of communicating.
Then the rise of, marketplaces, which enable this, you know, whether it's Fiverr, Upwork, Shopify, Etsy, whatever it is. It allows you to both get a gig and buy a gig, if that makes sense. Then, obviously, the rise of the gig workers. So this year, more people will also work freelance as will have a full time job. And finally, the impact of COVID, of which where you worked was the least important impact of COVID. What you thought about your boss and why you worked was the most impactful. And we've entered an age of debossification when no one told the bosses that. And people are basically asking, wait a second. I had a pretty good life.
The company did well. I had bunch of flexibility. Now why am I going back to this person who's trying to control me? Check-in. Monitor. So you take those five, which obviously intertwined, and work will never be the same again. And that's the central thesis of the book that we should be rethinking everything. And then the rest of the book has two sections. One, which is what we should do right away, and then the other is to anticipate what the world will look like in 2029.
[00:07:59] Shawn Yeager:
And and, again, but no spoilers. But, can you can you give us a hint of what that Sure. What that near future looks like? So there are two things. So right now in the near future, when people say, alright.
[00:08:12] Rishad Tobaccowala:
What should I do both as a talented person or as a leader or as the head of HR or someone who wants to launch a company? The answers are for all four of those. Every one of those has to think about doing four things differently right away. So my stuff is just don't wait. You have to do it right away. So the first one is stop thinking about a new type of employee if you're in a company. Put into force not just a right now, most companies have three types of employees, full time, freelance, and a contract employee. So contract employee is an employee of another company that you actually take home. I believe it's gonna be time for a fractionalized employee. So fractionalized employee is someone who works 60 or 80% of their time, get 60 or 80% of their full benefits, which also basically includes equity bonuses, but a % of health care. And this allows companies to basically, a, leverage up and down their talent in an AI age without laying off people, recognize that people have additional things they'd like to do besides work all the time, or they may need to because of children, aging parents, or other things.
So we have a system that refuses to acknowledge that today your choice is you are an employee of a company or you're not. Why? Okay. We talk about agility and flexibility. Why? Second is what do we all need to do in a world where knowledge is free and human intelligence is quite useless. So in a AI age, what do you do? Oh, so you don't say HI plus AI. I said, listen. AI is better than HI. You don't need AI plus HI. Okay? Don't be ridiculous. That's, like, a silly thing. You do need an HI, but that HI is things like human ingenuity, human inventiveness, human interaction, human integrity, those kinds of things.
Because very much to the theme of your podcast, I believe the big differentiating advantage we trust. Okay? Third is to rethink the office. So my basic belief is I am a big believer in in person interaction for some of the office, and why should it happen three days a week? Why can't you basically pull everybody together for two weeks, a quarter in an exotic location? It's more cost effective. It's cheaper. It's more impactful. Why are you doing it this way? Right? And finally, one of the reasons you're doing it this way is because many people are bosses and managers and no longer leaders. So I talk about how do you become a leader versus just be a manager.
So learn to lead versus manage, rethink the office, think about AI and human interaction, and come up with a new type of employee or try to be a new type of employee. So those four are what companies, individuals, talent, people should do now. And then the last five chapters are particularly interesting because they basically say, how would you now rethink everything if all what I've just said is true? So what I've said is the world we have is right here. Right? Okay. Do these right away just to survive. But now to thrive, what do you need to do? So now which you need to buy a little bit of time to, like, rethink everything. Right? So in there, I begin by saying, have you thought about that every firm's strategy should change? Because if firms really are about providing products and services, but the vehicle of production is the worker or the work?
And if that is fundamentally changed, could it be that the strategy of the firm changes?
[00:12:15] Shawn Yeager:
And I believe, as, Rishad, as you noted, 70 to 80% of at least US firms are now service firms? Service firms. Yeah. So big, big deal.
[00:12:24] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Second is how do you restructure the entire organization where increasingly most of the people who get the work done aren't gonna be full time employees. They're gonna be just in time employees, fractionalized employees, contract workers, etcetera. So that model is very much like a model of the movie studio business, where very few people are in the movie studio, people work on the projects, and they're all fractionalized people who come in and work on the project. They do most of them get insurance through their union. K? So they have a % union, but they get paid for when they work. And when they work, they get you know? So it's it's sort of a very strange fractionalized employee in that space. And then it is how do you retrain the entire workforce? Because when when you're gonna go from being doing this to that, it's not gonna be some immaculate conception that you suddenly get born into this new role. You have to learn. Okay? So when a company says, I have a new strategy, I said, okay. Show me your new training program, and show me what your incentive program looks like. If you don't have an incentive program that aligns people with a new strategy and you don't have a training program, you don't have a new strategy. You basically have a website and a deck. That's all you got. A wish and a prayer. Right.
And and then, you know, towards the very end of the book, I also measure talk about finance, which is you have to measure things differently. As we went from the analog to the digital age, a lot of our measurements changed. And in this particular age, if your cost structure is primarily outside, most of your stuff is about cloud compute. Right? It's about plug and play and a whole bunch of other things. The economics will be different, both cost economics, productivity economics. And the final chapter basically anticipates what the future of work ecosystem will look like. And in there, I basically say that they'll be most companies will have far fewer employees than they have today, and the ecosystem will be a bunch of whales, like a NVIDIA Taiwan semiconductor, a Google, you know, Eli Lilly, bunch of whales, Walmart, and lots and lots of plankton, which are much more smaller companies.
And the occasional whale and, shark and squid somewhere around. Okay? But it'll basically be this this ecosystem. And and as a result, most people will be working for far smaller companies, which could be a company of one, in a far more liquid marketplace. And what some of those are and how would you have to think about and lead in that. So people have read the book, and the book has done very well. It's out about three months. It's selling very well. And feedback that I've got is a lot of people, after they read the book, recommended and sometimes buy a lot for their firms.
Okay? Their leadership of their firm, I just spoke to a firm where two of their top people, not the very top, but very like, the head of data and the head of AI, which are two different people, read my book, talked to their boss who runs all of data and AI in this huge company. And then yesterday, I talked to the 50 employees, all of whom had been the 50 leaders, not employees. It's a huge company. Massive. All of all of whom had been asked to read the book. Right? And I did a sort of a q and a, sort of on the book. Does that make sense? Fantastic. So more and more, that's basically happening. And I and the other thing that's become really weird is I've been now doing stuff with schools because colleges and schools have said we are preparing people for the future of work, but not for this future. Absolutely not. And my old and they're saying we better tell people this should be this books. I've gone to universities, and and people are sort of doing I'm doing actually a thing on the future of work with Northwestern here.
[00:16:20] Shawn Yeager:
No. It's I would I mean, I would tell you tell me. It's existential for higher education. It's existential.
[00:16:25] Rishad Tobaccowala:
It's it's so for higher education, for existing companies, and and so what tends to basically happen is that it ties in very well with my like, you know, my previous book was about restoring the soul of business, taking human in the age of data. But I also have a certain degree of credibility based on my working career. So like I say, I've always had a career. The first thirty seven years, I had a job. The last six years, I haven't had a job. I'm still working. I still have a career. Right? But the difference is, don't say I've retired. I'm not retired. I don't have a job. I'm working. I'm traveling.
Right? And in a strange way, I'm actually making even more money than I had when I had the highest job. Okay? Fantastic. You're you're you're living you're living the outcome that you're writing about. Right. And so my stuff is it can be perfectly done, and I was doing it also inside the company. And I don't believe, like, it's about exceptions that you don't want us unique or rare or My old basic belief is you can get where you wanna get. It takes a little bit of time. You can't suddenly decide you wanna do it. But the reality is I'm now lining this Bunsen burner under people's butts, saying take charge of your own career. Don't listen to Carrie Underwood who says Jesus, take the wheel. You take it.
[00:17:40] Shawn Yeager:
Okay? Be being here in Nashville, I will,
[00:17:43] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I will take a yeah. Right. You right. So you take the wheel, okay, of your career. Absolutely. Which basically means plot at how you position yourself for this new world. Absolutely brilliant. And trust runs through it because, obviously, you know, modern companies will run-in part increasingly on, like, there'll be parts of it on blockchain. Mhmm. But trust will become the currency and an AIA.
[00:18:07] Shawn Yeager:
Well, and in fact, that takes me perfectly, Rishad, to my next question. So in in restoring the soul of business Right. I'd love this. You call trust the currency of the future. I think you may have just noted that. And and you warn that, quote, data without a soul is like a body without a heart. Yes. And so, now, in what I continually will refer to as the hyper accelerating technologies of AI, how can businesses embrace AI and the seemingly endless data required to harness it, while keeping a human touch? So the three
[00:18:43] Rishad Tobaccowala:
beliefs I have, which I am sharing with firms, is the first is AI will not be a differentiator for any firms or most firms. It might be a differentiator for Google or something like that, but it's unlikely to be differentiated for almost every other firm outside of the company. That is that in the sense that it will become table stakes? Is it Yeah. So I'm sorry. Is there already baseline requirement? In about a couple of years, it's gonna become table stakes because it's gonna basically be let's suppose you're running a company, Sean, and I'm running a company, and you pitch a client and I pitch a client.
And the reason you claim that you are better than me is because you use electricity.
[00:19:25] Shawn Yeager:
Right. Right.
[00:19:26] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Okay. So your client will ask you. Last I saw, Rashad was not sitting in the darkness by candlelight. I think his company uses electricity too. So when people go in and say, you know, here's how we're gonna differentiate with AI. Tell me who isn't going to use AI. Mhmm. Like, who? Which company isn't gonna use it? And by the way, this AI that they use all come from the same separate companies. So don't tell me that you got a difference. Like, your electricity isn't better than my electricity. Right. Okay. Now what you build on top of that electricity is where the differences are. The web, mobile, all these other waves. So, therefore, my whole thing is, a, embrace AI, adapt your company to AI, and then find complementary things that you build on top that differentiate you. Right? But in addition to embracing and adapting and complementing, don't just focus on efficiency and effectiveness.
Think about the existential risk and opportunities to reimagine your entire business. So my firm is, first of all, AI is not gonna be a differentiator. Second is embrace it, adapt the workflows, and complement both as individuals and companies. But when we're looking at outcomes, just don't think about how AI will make your current business more effective and efficient. Think about how you could reimagine your entire business. Just like digital did not save the New York Times because it made the trucks run faster and the printing presses run faster. The New York Times reinvented its business to not be a paper based business, a page one driven based business, and even based a news based business. They reimagined their business completely.
So most of the companies are basically not reimagining their business. They're writing an AI strategy versus rethinking their entire strategy for an AI agent.
[00:21:20] Shawn Yeager:
And and if we drill in a bit on that, you you coined I believe you coined the term DigiLog. The the,
[00:21:29] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Yeah. A mashup of digital and analog data and intuition. Yeah. And and basically, what I basically said is there is a thing called digital leakage where everything comes together. Okay? And and and we're in this particular world that it's happening. But now now in many ways, like, as Harabolo started a digital agency thirty years ago, it's almost like digital is now sounds like a typewriter.
[00:21:54] Shawn Yeager:
Absolutely. It's anachronism at this point. Right? Yeah. Well, and and so and I you also call out the which I particularly liked, that that if I understood, DigiLog was DigiLog is a guide, a cautionary tale in some ways to help others avoid what you call data blinded outcomes like robotic customer service. And so for companies who are going to, as you say, absolutely have to increasingly embrace AI in, let's say, customer service or customer engagement. What are you advising them to do to ensure that it strengthens rather than erodes trust, which I think is is a fear that that many have?
[00:22:33] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I think that two or three things one has to do. One is a, Jess gotta make absolutely sure that any interaction that your company does with a customer or a member or any people, a, definitely, will have to leverage and utilize state of the art AI, not just because of cost savings, but because it's the best way to get them the answers that they need. Right? But what they need to be able to do is the way they serve up the answer, the experiences, and the interface. So in many ways, the interface of the conversation will become the brand. User experience is everything. Right. So user experience and a sort of an experience stack is one. Second is when they want, you include a human in the loop very quickly.
Okay? But you don't have to have a human in the loop unless they ask for human in the loop. Because in many cases, I don't want any human in the loop. You know, so there are a lot of places where you don't want a human. But often when you want a human, they make it impossible to find it. Right? So if you go to a website looking for a number to call, you have to hunt and peck like a mad person. Mhmm. Okay? And my old stuff is you gotta make it very easy for a human to be in the loop fast, but also recognize that interface, experience, design. But underlying it all will come back to what I believe is very, very important, and obviously, you've named your entire podcast about it, is trust.
I truly believe that trust and integrity, okay, are very, very important. And you might say, aren't they the same thing? They're somewhat similar but different. So let me tell you what that is. Trust is what somebody earns, but usually trust is what I need to feel about you as a brand. Okay? But the way you end up being a trustworthy brand is making sure that you're operating across every area with integrity. And and integrity to me, the best definition of integrity, is when you what you say, what you believe, and what you do, all are completely aligned. K? So what you say, what you do, and what you believe.
And if you don't do that, you are not don't have integrity and nobody will trust you. And one of the key things is a big part of integrity, which is a a new thing I've added to what you say, what you believe, and what you do. And it's unfortunate I've had to add this, but this has been my big insight over the last few months or years. Is Is it true? Okay. So my basic belief is the following. You could behave, say, and believe that vaccines are not good. But it's not true. Okay? So there is no integrity. Because, yes, you are in in you're consistent, but you are not consistent with the world of science. And my basic belief is, if you are anti science, I want you to defecate in the outdoors, not use flushes.
Okay? Don't use cars. Don't use electricity. Science, you either accept or do not accept. Science is not like I want it and I feel like it and I don't feel like it. And science doesn't care, by the way, about you. You can tweet that you don't believe in gravity. I can jump out of my window here and die. So get over it. Okay? And part of what I believe and what I truly believe in trust, leaders are losing their trust in America because they're not saying truthful things. Oh, indeed. They're not behaving with integrity. Okay? So I'll give you a statistic, and this gives you an idea of trust, tax, and the world we live in. Less than two weeks ago, I was speaking to 40 c level executives from a variety of banks, big banks, small banks, you know, sort of regional banks.
And there were two of us, and I was basically talking about my topic was really about broadly about change management, how to have influence when you aren't the key thing. Like, in banks, you know, there's different people. And another gentleman was basically from a company I won't name, but very, very well regarded company, was basically sharing data. He works with banks, sharing data. He's the executive vice president. And he had shared his presentation with me, and I'd said what I was doing because we were each presenting and then we're gonna be on a panel. So we wanted to make sure that it looked like one piece. Right. Right? What we were doing, and we complimented each other.
And we did. But his presentation, which he shared with me over the web, but then in person when it was the same presentation, he put he said a thing, a line before he started. And the line he said was, I'm about to show you some data. This is not a political statement. So I asked him later why did he do that. He said his company made him do that because what he would because they just wanted it's just very much like you you know, you put up some earnings reports and say these are forward looking statements. Mhmm. K. So what were the three facts that he actually He said. He said a lot of things, but the three big facts themes were before the end of this decade, women will control 40% of America's wealth.
And in many categories like automobile, they themselves are responsible for more than half the purchases. Automobile sales. New automobile sales, 51% women. Again, the second largest no. The the fifth largest country in the world and the economy in the world is frauds. Equal to that is the Hispanic population of The United States. Seventy Eight Percent of those were born in The United States. Three. Baby boomers are the biggest, not baby Gen z is the biggest group of people now in the workforce starting this year as baby boomers age out. 49% of Gen z identify themselves as non Caucasian. Okay? So what he's basically said, the future is women, Hispanic, and non Caucasian to a large number of bankers who are older.
[00:28:49] Shawn Yeager:
I do know that demographic.
[00:28:51] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Right? And my basic belief, my statement was, do you understand how regardless of what you you're not believing with each other, how you're losing an entire generation who are basically looking at you as your strip companies out of debt diversity, equity, and inclusion. Right? Keep talking about macho and hardcore. Right? Who thinks anybody who's brown should be sent off to, you know, whatever, El Salvador? Do you understand how you're destroying your companies? You are not leaders. You are people with marshmallow minds and jujubes minds. That's what trust is. That's what truth is. That's what integrity is. And that way, it's in addition to being obviously a technological thing with blockchain and an organizational thing with the future of work, it's also about individuals.
Right? And I can tell you, if you have trust and you have integrity,
[00:29:50] Shawn Yeager:
you can take over the work. Absolutely. And I think I think, you know and I could I'm I'm imagining a fractal conversation where I would love to spend hours, and I could, genuinely, exploring how do we land on truth? How do we land on, you know, I'm I'm recalling a study. I would be hard pressed to to name the the source at this point, but where they discussed Gen Z taking the approach of quote, magpying the truth, which is to echo, you know, to make a call in response to their peers to effectively land on the truth. And there's so many fascinating questions. But I'll go here, Rishad. You also have described trust as a good housekeeping seal for brands in a tech heavy world.
If we talk about decentralization with regard to technology, peer to peer platforms, it could be bitcoin, it could be whatever. How do you see this shifting the power balance with businesses? And by that, I mean, do you see that it returns some of the power to the individual, to the consumer? Or or really with the case of AI, is it just that it will it will sort of re centralize back to the biggest firms, the biggest brands?
[00:31:06] Rishad Tobaccowala:
So I'm gonna provide you a perspective. And in this particular perspective, unlike the rest of my book, which is substantiated with data. This one has less doesn't that isn't necessarily doesn't have data to support it, but it doesn't have that enough of the data to support it. So this is a little bit more built on my lessons from history than actual facts. But the facts are this is what's happened in the past. Right? So I believe that every advance in technology places a premium on talent, that every time technology has increased. And one of the reasons why today, all over the world, not just The United States, United States may be a little bit more extreme, there is certain inequality of outcomes is primarily because if you and I were playing or I and Serena Williams was playing tennis, and both of us were using the old Bilson rackets from the nineteen seventies, she would still beat me. And if I basically use the modern racket, she would still beat me, but with a little less deal.
But if both of us were now using the modern racket, she would beat me much more than when we were both using the old racket. Because I believe technology is the leverage that allows David to bring down Goliath. Mhmm. And if you believe that talent is David and capital and companies are Goliath, my basic belief is this is the Goliath's last straw. So right now, here's what's basically happening. There is currently and the new and the Wall Street Journal had this article, and I was about to put it on LinkedIn with some screen against it, but decided against it. Okay? Where they talked about everyone saying, okay, to the talent, the economy is softer. I can replace you with AI.
Stop being a crybaby. Come back five days a week. Do this. Otherwise, you're completely replaceable. K? So So first of all, that's not the way to treat anybody because in effect, they'll remember when again the success circumstances changes. But the truth of the matter is what you're just reminding people is why they should not trust you, not believe in you, not follow you. That's all you're doing. And this is basically not one built on forward looking anything. It's built basically on the last cry of the dinosaurs before they die. Okay? So all this thing about macho and, you know, hardcore and all this bullshit is a total lack of imagination as to where the world is going. Because in effect, I believe technology gives us all godlike power. And, yes, you can talk about surveillance state and this state and that state, but what has tended to basically happen is, yes, Has Meta and Google and Amazon made a lot of money? Yes. But has it also enabled many creators, developers, businesses?
Yes. Right? So there's never a, like, it's all clean. But what I would basically say is, would you rather live in today's ecosystem than one before smartphones, before Amazon, before Google, before Mara, before breakthroughs in GLP one drugs, before. My whole stuff is like, what are you talking about? Right? But keep going backwards. You might as well live in the Greek times. They were fantastic. People would have great conversations, but they also happen to be slaves. There was no indoor plumbing. You know, people forget all of that. They just take one thing, and then they expect everything else to be static, which it which it isn't. So one of my basic beliefs is that in this new world, power is moving to talent versus capital.
And primarily because of this, you can today start, and there are companies I would anticipate by the end of next year that will have a billion dollars of revenue with less than a hundred people because of AI, because of marketplaces, because of all kinds of stuff. Right? You You can have a hundred employees. I can touch another thousand. But I can only have a hundred employees in my company. I can use modern AI, modern systems, plug and play, and I can build a billion dollar revenue, not even billion no. Forget about billion dollar market cap. Billion dollar revenue company.
Now in that particular world, explain to me why talent doesn't matter. Right? In a world where, basically, I have a full time job I don't like, but I can simultaneously do all kinds of other stuff in the evenings, afternoons, or when nobody's watching, on Etsy, Shopify, Fiverr, whatever I wanna basically do. Tell me how that is about talent. The reality of it is many of the leaders of the world, including America, are spending too much time in their private jets doing incestuous thinking with each other. I recently talked to 40 CEOs and I said, you know something?
Let me tell you that in the future, the only way to win is to think like an immigrant. Okay? And I said, here's what immigrants do. We are, a, all immigrating into the future. So we're all immigrants. So you are immigrants too. Immigrants think like outsiders. You all think like insiders. Immigrants think like underdogs. You think like overdogs. Immigrants think with a future focus. You're looking at the quarterly results. I'll beat you anytime. Just give me a little bit of time. Right? You talk to them like this and you realize that they are very scared of themselves. Certainly. Every senior leader is questioning about irrelevancy. All this hocus pocus bullshit hides underlying insecurity.
That is because they are too they talk about change, but they themselves don't change. Right? And and there's where trust comes in. In this particular world, I think a combination of these wide networks, like, in addition to my book, I write a substack where I reach more CMOs and CEOs than AdEdge or Adweek too. Right? Sitting by by myself at home. It's all free. Fantastic. I think you're at about 30,000 subscribers. Is that right? Yeah. Yeah. But but it was 30,000, but it's got, like, hundreds of CEOs, CMOs, etcetera. Right? Who read me every Sunday. I'm not sure they read all of Adweek or anything like that. Right? Excepting when they're mentioned to it. So what what tends to basically happen is one of the key things and and I'm talking about real things, not like which account went from one place to the other, which is trivial. Okay. So so one of the key things that basically makes a big difference is every tool today gives me power.
Yes. Does it also provide because of data, like a surveillance state and everything else? But I don't really believe that that the that the future is going to be about capital over talent. I think it's gonna be talent plus capital over capital. But it'll be very easy to relatively get capital because you require much less capital AI age. And there are some industries where you will require a lot of capital. That's why it's just so there'll be these whales. You're gonna require big capital for pharmaceuticals, chip design, you know, things like that. But most other businesses, you don't.
[00:37:51] Shawn Yeager:
Right. And What what about, Rashad? And and, I mean, that that all that's I think it's extremely important with regard to talent, and it's empowering. I mean, as I mentioned, I'm here in Nashville mostly among the creative class, so called. And and, you know, innumerable conversations about what might it mean to own one's own copyright, to own one's own publishing, to have a chance to do better than the Spotifys of the world. On the consumer side, and you've laid out I think very clearly that there will be an accretion of capital, of technology, of power essentially to the largest firms. What about the consumer? What about the individual? What is your take on you know, as I as I led in this question with the ability for the average individual to realize a bit more control, a bit more power?
So this assumes my question, I'm sorry, I'll just quickly say my question is baked with the assertion or the assumption that there is a tremendous power imbalance. Right? That I'm at the will of these large corporations and and can I reclaim some of that power, rather than be forced to trust them effectively?
[00:39:05] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I I believe so. So I think what's basically happening is these things go so I always say the future never comes from the heavens, it comes from the slime. Right? So I began to see the impact. For instance, someone reminded me that 15 ago, I said that Internet technology would break the spine of media companies. Lo and behold. And that's right. But it began with first with newspapers, then it moved up to magazines, then it moved up to radio, and now it's moved up to television. Does it make sense? Similarly, the empowerment that's starting to take place is happening on certain fridges.
So, yes, it's an Andreessen Horowitz company, but I use Substack. And Substack gives me the following three pieces of control. I own my mailing list. I own my subscribers. They don't. I own and can port over my content, and some people have to ghost and beehive and other kinds of things. Right? And if I just and it's free. Those two parts are free. Mhmm. And if I decide to charge, which is I make revenue, they basically get 10% available. About 3% goes to Stripe, and that would go anywhere to Stripe. So it's basically they get 10%. Those are better metrics than thirty, seventy, or even higher, like, with the Apple Store. Mhmm. Right?
So first of all, it's already beginning to say, hey. There's that. The other is now I own all my content, which is very, very important. But as importantly, and this is the very interesting thing, it is generating a massive loss of talent from the big companies to the small companies. So more and more people are leaving the magazines, newspapers, radio. Right? Who is some of the talent that still exists there in doing this? Because you can make much more money, you have much more control, you have much more agency. And one of the things I often remind people is you can probably do both unless your company gets completely weirded out, and some people in the New York Times have. Okay? The New York Times has enough gravitas that can still attract and retain world class people, but the Washington Post can't. The LA Times can't. CNN can't. Okay?
And so to a great extent, what you're basically seeing is control and power is moving to the individual, but it's starting to happen from the smaller things. Just like in that, it starts with writing. But now Substack has add video. Absolutely. Does that make sense? The other one and I was a big believer, and I continue to be a big believer. And you noticed at the end of my first book, I mentioned it. And in my second book, you know, where I talk about technology, I don't just talk about AI. I'm a big believer in blockchain. Okay?
And I remind people I'm a big believer in blockchain because in effect, it is a underlying technology that allows me to basically own my identity and get paid for my data. Okay? And it gives me a whole bunch of stuff. And as it becomes easier and, you know, it goes to this wild thing where nobody cares and okay. It's bullshit. It's not. And, obviously, I'm not talking about meme coins and things like that. I'm talking about the underlying I hope not Rashad. Yeah. Right. Underlying, you know, the underlying technology. But if you if you have all of that, then you can actually do something.
[00:42:19] Shawn Yeager:
And I think I mean, and I, you know, I I almost, feel the obligation to insert a disclaimer for those who are in my circle, who know that, you know, I'm a laser eyed Bitcoin maxi. And so, you know, we we might we might take issue with sort of blockchain as a very expensive database. But but I would I would, you know, perhaps read your your your remark. Don't let me put words in your mouth. More broadly to say, the ability to tokenize, the ability to,
[00:42:47] Rishad Tobaccowala:
to have And and it's coming around. I mean, when you think about it, right, from ten years ago, seven years ago, six years ago. The fact today that there's gonna basically be a stablecoin, which is gonna have US, you know, sort of endorsement. And and and I'll tell you something. If you look at a stablecoin and if you just look at the fact let's say, okay. Forget about everything. As I remind people, look, the reality of it is for many parts of the world, the ability to basically move money without paying Western Union Mhmm. The ability to basically move your dollars quickly.
Right? Or or your piece peso pesos into dollars, which are a little bit stable, used to be. Mhmm. Okay. While you do do other things, makes a thing. And the reality of it is that some of the biggest users of stable coins, etcetera, are companies like Starlink. Like, we look at all the big companies that are basically using it. Okay? So to a great extent, you can it's it's an underlying basis business, but everything that it does, it reduces the cost, it tokenized, that gives me more power. Certainly. Certainly. Okay. And and and that is a huge, huge deal. And it's gonna put major pressure on Mastercard and Visa. It's gonna put major pressure on all these companies because all these companies have basically been built, right, on three arbitrages.
The arbitrage of data, the arbitrage of information, and the arbitrage of size.
[00:44:15] Shawn Yeager:
Certainly.
[00:44:16] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Alright. And all those arbitrages, while important, are going to be continued to be hit and hurt. And the big difference and this is a key thing that I would remind everybody. So yesterday, I spoke to a very large financial firm, very huge. 50 of their top people. Not their top people, 50 of their top people in their data and AI group. And one of the things that they asked, and they all had to read and I just they're all reading my book. And so a question was, since you wrote the book, it's been a year since you touched it. The book only came out three months ago, but the way you know, if you publish with a big house, it's don't touch it for a long time. So it's the last time I edited the book was ten months ago. K.
So it's ten months. What have you got wrong? What have you got right? So I said, I haven't got anything wrong, and I haven't got any I've got most of it is right. I haven't got anything wrong yet. The only thing I've got wrong is how right I was, and it's happening faster. Right? So I said, the thing that I got right, but not the speed is much faster, is how fast AI is moving and disrupting companies. Right? How fast, you know, Blockchain and others are starting to be accepted is faster than I thought. A lot of my stuff is 2029. Now I've moved that up to 2027.
Okay. So that's one. So that's the first thing is and the other one, which I did not get wrong, but I think we've messed it up, is the way companies are reacting to diversity, equity, and inclusion is stupid given all the statistics I've shared in the book. Right? Because in effect, the one thing you don't do, and Elon Musk has proven this, don't piss off your future customers. Seems like sound logic. Don't piss off your future customers. If your future customer is the exact person I'm not saying the reason I don't use the word DI and I don't use any of that, I I just said the words. Diversity, tell me what's wrong with that. Equity, tell me what's wrong with that. And inclusion, tell me what's wrong with that. First, let's talk about that. Right? And by the way and then if I wanna be, like, really, really, like well, give me a couple of drinks, and this is what I tell people.
Okay? Hey. You're Caucasian guy. Diversity, equity, and inclusion is for you. You're gonna be the minority in five, ten years. We're actually putting into place something for you. And that changes the whole thing completely. Right? My own stuff is think. And that's the other problem. Most people have stopped thinking. They just, like I don't know. They slurp from one place, and then they throw up in the other place, so they think that's life. It is an interesting,
[00:46:50] Shawn Yeager:
interesting future that we're that we're running into. And I think
[00:46:54] Rishad Tobaccowala:
yeah, that that again is a is another, sort of fractal conversation. That to trust also, which is that's why I keep saying trust and integrity and part of integrity is, like, is it true?
[00:47:04] Shawn Yeager:
Well and I think, you know, and I think this is this is, not something I'd planned to discuss, but I think it's quite interesting is what motivates it. Right? And I think I think, and I observe that there are a lot of reactions to DEI as a policy matter born of a belief that it is concocted. And by that I mean, and I'm gonna wade in this Sure. Perhaps dangerously, is that it is concocted. It is not authentic. It is a checkbox, rather than and I think you've spoken to this eloquently. Rather than, you know, something that emerges as a core value belief, delivery
[00:47:53] Rishad Tobaccowala:
of of service or product from an organization, from a company. The way I best describe it is the famous writer William Gibson in one of his books. I think it's William Gibson, maybe someone else. He's one of the famous right. But it it so this may not be a William Gibson, maybe someone else who basically said the future is already here, but it's not evenly distributed. Evenly distributed. Absolutely. So I basically believe that while the future is here and it's not evenly distributed, I believe talent is evenly distributed, but opportunity is not. Okay? And my basic belief is if talent is evenly distributed and opportunity is not, if opportunity was equally distributed and talent was equally distributed, right, in most companies, leadership would somewhat reflect the population of the country they were working in.
It doesn't have to be an equal reflection, but somewhat. So my basic belief is if you are two standard deviations away from there, ask why. I'm not saying you can't be standard deviation. Talent is right? But for instance, if you basically are in a you're in in your your company's board has 10 people and all of them are Caucasian white men. And in your country, Caucasian white men is 30% of the population. Should you ask why is this happening? Okay? And you could basically say, well, talent is only for Caucasian white men. We are only selecting talented people. You might believe that. Now in effect, nobody will tell you that that's true. So you're basically saying is because we're not looking hard enough, and we should look hard enough. And by the way, in your company, if then 20% of your of your company happens to be, let's say, women.
Right? Do they feel included in the company when they don't see a single leader looking like them? Those are the things. I'm not saying have a quota system. I'm not saying, you know, the the thing. But the reality of it is is is unless you believe talent is only distributed to Africaners in South Africa, which apparently, you know, between David Sachs and Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, they think. So they are considered to be refugees. I mean, that's the most racist thing I've seen, reverse racism I've ever seen. Okay? And my old stuff is like, that's bullshit. Just because you got a billion dollars doesn't mean you have any brains. You had brains in making one thing, but not your your your brains made you a billion dollars. Your billion dollars doesn't allow you to defecate on everything else which you don't know what you're talking about. Yes.
[00:50:30] Shawn Yeager:
Why I think they are losing trust. That's why they are losing trust. Right. Right. And I think in that Annette, you know, it's interesting. I I don't know if you just happen to know Rishad, a fellow by the name of John Robb, r o b b. If if not, I'll just give a, an accolade to John. I interviewed him a few weeks ago. In fact, it was the first published podcast or episode of my podcast. He talks about, largely the network swarms, the red, the blue, and others. And I think, you know, what bring that, rather brought that to mind, what brings that to mind is that depending on your swarm, depending on your tribe, depending on the pole that you've been drawn to, you will have clearly a very different take on this. Well, if we jump a bit, Rishad, there was a particular Substack article of yours that I really enjoyed called reinvented marketing. And you say the brand is the experience. The experiences are the brand.
Given that, and if we if we look again to AI data, the natural tendency toward the whales in tech and other sectors, I'm thinking today, there was a significant yesterday, today, Coinbase breach. I don't know if you saw that news. There's a video out from, from Brian Armstrong, the the CEO of the company. Data breaches are almost darkly comically common. We all get these emails, saying, hey. Fantastic. You know, we're gonna give you six months of free credit rating, credit monitoring. And, oh, by the way, you know, all of your PII has been leaked. So the question in it is this, what does that look like with accelerating technologies like AI? Do you see it getting worse?
Is it now just a, normative sort of state of affairs? What does that do to the future of trust in consumer trust with with large brands?
[00:52:28] Rishad Tobaccowala:
So I think it it is probably gonna get worse in the near term for a couple of reasons. One is because many of the current ways of discovering, whether it's me, whether it's visual or voice, can now be replicated by the machines.
[00:52:46] Shawn Yeager:
Trivially.
[00:52:47] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Trivially. Right? There is some risk, but it hasn't yet happened, and I don't think it will. I don't understand the mathematics of it. But people have said, you know, could the underlying, you know, technology, Satoshi's technology be, like, attacked? Could someone get, like, 51 dominance or whatever they Absolutely. Yes. You're correct. Now that that is the greatest great fear. Right. So and with quantum computing, with AI, will that actually happen? So I what I do believe is there are a few things, which is one, is, you know, it's very much the whole ideas, you know, consumer beware, bio beware.
Mhmm. I believe that we have to basically assume that unless proven you know, in in the world of, you know, in the world of law, you are innocent until you're proven guilty. I think in the future world, you're gonna have to prove you're innocent because you have to basically assume that if there is an interaction and it even is slightly as something you don't know or even feels different, it's guilty.
[00:53:57] Shawn Yeager:
Okay? Mhmm. And the phone And if I hear you if I hear you correctly, Rishad, what you're saying is from the standpoint of the individual, the consumer, the person, I must assume this artifact, this this video, this is is is fake, and I have to I have to discern. I have to discern. I've gotta basically it is fake unless
[00:54:17] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I am now finding reasons for it to be true
[00:54:20] Shawn Yeager:
versus I accept it as truthful. Right? Do you have do you have a take on how we go about that? I mean, that's a that's a perhaps a far reaching question. But So I'll I'll I'll give you sort of an an an indicator. Right? So right now, on my
[00:54:33] Rishad Tobaccowala:
while we were talking, I received two texts. K. One was a translation of a phone voice message, and one was a text from Coinbase, okay, which you may be getting also all the time. And this is before any of this, which basically says, you know, this is your code. This is what you need to do. Just like all these, like, hackers and spam. Phishing attempts. Right. Voice mail is from the Indian consulate basically saying that unless I call them that there's something wrong with my passport. Now what's particularly interesting is the two slight problems here. One is I don't have an Indian passport, so I don't understand why the Indian consulate is calling me. Right? I have a US passport. In India, you don't you can't have both, which is number one. Second is the Indian consulate in Chicago is a friend of mine.
So if there was a Checkmate. Spammer. If there was a particular issue, they could basically call me. Right? So I actually call them back, and I pretend I'm in the Interpol. Okay? And I say I'm from the Interpol. We are tracking everything. We found out your home, your number, and your family. Be very, very careful. I've let ice know. I've let Doge know. I've let everybody else know, and it freaks about. I might imagine that. Okay. And so what you wanna basically do is anything I get from anybody, I automatically basically assume, like, it doesn't sort of work. And so everything I've got is two factor authenticated.
Okay? And so my whole basic belief is if there is a like, that everything has to be sort of two four. And so, for instance, if somebody says check into this, I know everything that's valuable to me is two things auth authenticated. Right? And so the reality of it is I now that sort of happens, but you can still they're getting better and better. So, you know, it's getting better and better. So to a great extent, that that is also why the brands matter so much. And to a certain extent, now what's begun to happen is people are trying to go after the trust brands. So, you know, often, basically, you get something that looks like it's come from Apple and Cupertino.
Right? Yeah. Because the production quality in these emails is going going way up in my experience. It's it's going yeah. And and so the the the the key thing right now is I've started to basically believe that unless I initiate something, I don't trust what's coming at me. Mhmm. I'm not saying I don't trust everything that's coming at me. It come up. Right? But my old stuff is, like, anything that is asking for information, I don't trust. Okay? A yeah. Yep. If if some someone asked any information, whether it's a login, a credit card, my own stuff is okay. This is fishy.
Because, by the way, whoever this person is already has that.
[00:57:15] Shawn Yeager:
So Apple has my credit card. Apple has right? So what are they calling me for a credit card number for? Absolutely. And let me let me ask you a a question based upon that. And I don't know that you necessarily are consulting advising at this level, but I think many, myself included, are concerned with companies responding to an increasing level and sophistication of attack by making everything a KYC activity. And and and, specifically, what I mean is being asked for what to me are seemingly trivial, commercial transactions, for increasing amounts of verification data, photos, passport, etcetera. And then I will just, be that cynical guy. Inevitably, their breach did leaks. And so I say that to ask, in your engagement with these senior leaders, is that a point of conversation or is it taken that this is the future? That k y you know, sort of the ultimate KYC is coming and we've just gotta keep piling more data and to reduce risk on the company's staff.
[00:58:26] Rishad Tobaccowala:
So I think Boris obviously have that problem, but the other one is to a great extent at some particular stage. We're gonna have these, like, trust things. So, you know, increasingly, many companies are using actually Apple or Google or other people as, you know, whether it's a app Right. Wallets or things like that. So I would I would sort of anticipate that there should be maybe six or seven or eight broad KYC type of keepers. Like, for instance, I went through the process of getting real ID. Okay? And I can say, okay. So if if I have this real ID, the government of your state has verified and checked four pieces of information, which should be enough for any KYC person. Right?
They have basically insisted that you bring to them your passport or your naturalization. No. Your birth certificate so your your passport has to be there. So or your naturalization. So they they say you're a US citizen. Right? Or you you're you're green card material. So you're a legal US citizen or US citizen. They want either because of your passport, if you don't have a passport, they want you to bring your birth certificate. You have to bring your Social Security card. You have to basically bring two sources of an address no later than last ninety days, which include things like either a utility bill,
[00:59:56] Shawn Yeager:
something like from a government or quasi government My my wife is an immigrant, and it is a, a seemingly never ending cycle. But please go ahead. Yeah. So I'm deeply familiar. So so so I went through that little
[01:00:10] Rishad Tobaccowala:
drama, which I had fortunately, I had I had everything, so I went through it. I waited in line. The whole thing took ninety minutes, and I was done. Now that particular stage that they have that, they should be able to validate a lot of things for me in the future. Like, my old basically, I got this card, and I got this passport. So stop asking me stupid questions. Okay? And forget about passport. You you this is my driver's license. Mhmm. You don't need anything else, bro. You you I'm a US citizen. Do I live in that address? I live in that address. Right? Is that my silly picture? It's my silly picture. What more do you want? So my whole thing is, to your point, there comes a point where over engineering destroys everything.
Okay? And that is part of what is happening with, like, say, KYC is because the everybody's trying to do KYC, and I'm not sure they're trying to do KYC. So here's my sinister belief. Remember, I said Please. Right? I believe they're trying to do KYCs to get more information for their databases. It's got nothing to do with security.
[01:01:11] Shawn Yeager:
Oh, I I would argue that's not sinister. It is it is, a a a logical conclusion.
[01:01:17] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Yeah. And because now all of them have basically said we can't trust any so what's really interesting is every organization that works with every organization doesn't trust every organization. Okay? Health care. Let's let's look at health care in The US, for example. Let's look at it. Alright. But it's for but it's for our benefit. Right? It's for our but but here's what's basically happened. At the at the big what I anticipate, and I'm looking at this, and this is one of the reasons why I think coming back to, like, trust and rethinking work are all connected.
So I believe I I have three beliefs. I believe that everybody's job, 50% of it is real and 50% of it is bullshit. Okay? Of the 50% that's bullshit, half of it has to be done because we're working with human beings. So you have to spend at least 25% of your time doing stupid stuff just to keep relationships going and things like that. Okay? As long as there's human beings in this drama, it's fine. So that's okay. And 25% is pretty useless. Okay? And I always tell people if you don't have time to learn, take it from that 25%. That's not helping anybody. Mhmm. Don't take it from sleep. Don't take it from your family. You got two hours every if you work if you have a eight hour day, there's two hours that is useless. Go get it hour of work. Reclaim that. Okay. That's that's one. But the second one, to a great extent, is so when you actually think about it and then modern technology allows you to disrupt major industries. I believe that in many, many industries, this fits fifty, sixty, 70 percent fact.
Okay? Which includes, by the way, in industries like pharmaceuticals and the whole medical establishment. Because my basic belief is why do you have 20% of GDP and we have such bad outcomes? Yes. Okay? Yes. And so so the reality of it is what have they been protected? So I went to the University of Chicago. The University of Chicago is a deeply capitalist place. Certainly. You are now writing books called Saving the Capitalism from Capitalists, which was the first book that came out ten years ago. Because what we often have in America is there's two types of capitalism.
In some cases, we've got real capitalism. Some cases, we have mediated capitalism. And increasingly, we have crony capitalism. Okay. And crony capitalism is when capital takes over government. And capitalism at its base is about competition. But increasingly, what we're doing is more and more of our businesses don't have competitors. Or they'll have another competitor who they meet at some club and they basically,
[01:03:51] Shawn Yeager:
in a nice way, wink at each other. Absolutely. Or they license each other's technology at that point. They're they're indiscernible.
[01:03:57] Rishad Tobaccowala:
And so what is basically happening is you're gonna see this massive explosion. And so a lot of the job infrastructure of America is also built on this bullshit. Okay? And as technology comes, that bullshit's gonna end. Work and problems and opportunities and experiences are gonna be huge. And, therefore, there's gonna be a lot of work, but they're not gonna be any jobs. And what tends to basically happen is in the end, I tell an individual, like, someone says, okay, Rashad. You know, you're now on Medicare. You have got out retired, and you're an idiot. Okay. So we are young, and you're talking bullshit stuff. Like, what are we supposed to do? So I said, look. You do the same thing I'm doing. Okay? I said, I I'd like to hopefully work health holding for another ten, fifteen years. So if that's true, I gotta do I gotta stay current. I can't, like, say I did this five years ago or three years ago. Matters no not not much to people. So what I did in the past matters to some extent, but I said, you have to learn how to operate like a company of one. Mhmm. Okay? And in that, it isn't I mean mine. I said, what is a company of what? Hone, architect, and scout the craft and stay at the top of your game. Because people will hire for expertise.
They're not gonna hire for experience. Second, have a ability to collaborate because we're gonna have to work with other people or alien machines or whatever it is. Third, have a great reputation built on trust and integrity. Okay? You do those three, you will succeed in the future. So it comes down to reputation and trust, highly important. And that's a theme song that I run through everything. Because interestingly, it's both technologically aligned and human aligned. Yes.
[01:05:38] Shawn Yeager:
Yes. And and in doing so, you have effectively answered my my closing question. But I'd like to ask it anyway because I feel like we could probably go deeper. I mean, Rashad, your work, you have helped guide businesses through waves of change across decades. And I know that from your background. As you say, balancing technology with human values. Maybe this is a glimpse to your next book. But if we look out beyond 2029 and if it happens sooner, then all the better. But what's the boldest shift that leaders should make to weave trust into the fabric of their organizations given, as you say, that it is the currency of the future? I believe that
[01:06:20] Rishad Tobaccowala:
leaders need to, a, be very clear that they themselves are vulnerable to change, and therefore, they themselves as individuals are in the process of reinvention. K? So you basically say, I am reinventing myself in order to remain relevant. If you ask any leader with enough alcohol in them, they'll say that they're struggling to figure out whether they're still relevant. So why don't you tell people, I now have to invest in my time, in my learning, in how I do and what I do. Can I have all of you also help me remain relevant? That is number one. You start with that. Second is you communicate in ways that in every interaction, you leave people with clarity, energy, and belief.
Clarity, I know what I just got said. Energy is I get more energized by this even if I have to do a lot of work. Mhmm. And belief is I believe myself and I trust the person who just told me. Okay? Number three is recognize that the future comes from the slime and not the heavens. And that doesn't mean you go hang hang around the slime, but always think that you don't know where you're going. And that's my thing about think like an immigrant. So think like an outsider. Think like an underdog,
[01:07:46] Shawn Yeager:
and think with a future focus because that's what immigrants do. Fantastic. Would would you say I'll I'll throw a part b. I mean, I I might imagine that much of that has always been true or or and so much Yep. Of what we need for the future, we learn from the past. Are there going to be different expressions?
[01:08:07] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Are there going to be different skill sets? There will be new skill sets. There'll be expressions. I think the new skill sets are going to basically be what I call the six c's. But and so what I basically say is when someone asks me what do you do, so I basically say I use modern technology, and I combine them with old Tradecraft. Traditions. Okay? So what I basically do is I use traditions, which are things like trust and integrity and excellence and all of that stuff. But I use modern technology to express it, update myself, upgrade myself, and connect. Okay? You do both of those. Right. So with that being said, what are these things that I would suggest to people? What they are and they are obviously expressed in completely different ways in this new world. Is the sixties. I call them the sixties.
'3 of them are about you, the individual. Learn to be cognitively updated, so constantly learn. Be creative, which is connect dots in new ways, and be curious, constantly asking what if and why not. But we don't work by ourselves. So the next one is basically find a way to basically, a, be collaborative, b, is earn people's confidence, and three, upgrade your communication skills, writing and speaking. Certainly. Okay? And so if you think about it, if people basically say, I am confident in Sean. Sean is a collaborative person, and Sean is convincing through his communications.
Okay? I I wanna work with Sean. Oh, by the way, Sean is state of the art because he's cognitively updated, put this right? He's connecting dots in new ways. He's telling me things I did not know. And he's willing to question himself in what we're doing, curiously. You come across people like that, you hold onto them for life. Absolutely. Okay? So you say I say and those, by the way, the way you do it will change as technology changes, but those become sort of the six c's.
[01:10:24] Shawn Yeager:
Right. That's a terrific place to to wrap it up, Rishad, and a great set of, a great set of of lessons to learn for those who, undoubtedly will want to read your book. So very much appreciate it. We will look forward to your future articles. And is there a next book? Last question.
[01:10:41] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I don't think so. After I wrote the first book, I didn't think I was gonna write a second one. And then I did because I realized there was this thing of work. I tend to do things in threes. I'm going to do things like I said three points, etcetera. So if there is one, I'm doing this backwards. I know what it'll begin with, the first letter of the title, and I know the color of the jacket. That's all I have so far. That's right. Is my both my books have begun. One is called restoring and one is called rethinking. Yes. One had a white cover, one had a red cover. And this is both for my French and, you know, American. Because I work for a French company and for American. Yes. This one, therefore, has to be a blue cover. Fantastic. We'll we'll we'll know it when we see it. And it will begin with r, and that might be reinventing. But who knows? Outstanding. Well, in the meanwhile, we have your writing on Substack. Thank you again, Rashad. It's been a pleasure. Very much.
Rashad, welcome. Thank you very much, sir. I appreciate you taking the time today. As we were discussing before we got started, though book tours are not quite what they used to be, I'm sure your schedule is packed, with the work to promote your fantastic new book Rethinking Work. And that is actually where I'd like to begin. I've read it. It's great. I recommend it wholeheartedly. It has given me quite genuinely a lot to think about with regard to my own career and the trajectory that it might take over the next five to ten years.
I might not expect you to frame it this way, but I would assert and would love to get your take on this, Rishad, that a central theme, if not the central theme effectively, is the decentralization of work. Would you start by highlighting the major themes of the book for those who may not have read it and talk about what unbundled work, my words perhaps, although I think you used that word, what does unbundled work look like?
[00:01:06] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Absolutely. So, yes, I do agree that the decentralization slash unbundling, of work is a central theme of the book. So I'm gonna begin with a line, which is as follows. I believe that we are or have seen the moment, what I call as peak jobs, definitely in the Western world, but definitely in The United States. So I believe we are now about to see high single digit to low double digit decline of jobs occurring every year. The next few. Which basically means that it is very likely by the end of this decade, let's say if it's just single digits, in the next five or six years or the end of the next decade or this decade, we will have maybe a third fewer jobs that currently exist.
That is pretty significant if you think about it. Now that's my opening statement. My second statement so my first statement is we've seen big jobs, and we are in the beginning of the decline of jobs, is we are about to see the most amazing increase in work to be done. And I believe the central thesis of modern corporations and a lot of the economy has been that we have equated jobs and work as the same thing. And I believe the jobs happen to be a receptacle where work gets done, and it was a dominant receptacle and remains a dominant receptacle today, but far less dominant today than it was, let's say, ten, fifteen years ago.
And it will be the minor vehicle of how people find work. They'll find work primarily outside a job even though they may have a job. So the underlying thesis of the book is we have to rethink work versus, if you note, I didn't call it rethinking jobs. Jobs. So Absolutely. That's the central and as a result, the forces so someone would say, Rishad, okay. You clearly have drunk a lot and have started to sort of hyperventilate and lose the plot. All of which is all possible. But I start the book with five forces, which I believe are driving the future of work. They're intertwined, but I try to tease them out, but they connect to each other. One which is the largest one, and I think the most significant one, the one least paid attention to, is societal and demographic changes. So I'll give you just five statistics or the listeners' five statistics.
All of which are and my book was published by Harper Collins, so every single statement is fact checked. So it's not like I just made these up. And each one has a link to where I got it from. But, a, the I'm gonna focus on The US, but this is true in every country in the world outside of seven. So number one, US population is about to decline, and it has never declined. But now it's about to go into decline. And every business and every business plan thinks that they're gonna have more people, but this is no longer true. It takes 2.1 children per woman to keep the population the same in The United States. That number currently is 1.6.
The only reason The US population is flat is between one point six and two point one is legal and illegal immigration. You step down on illegal immigration, you're gonna have a decline. You step down or lessen legal and illegal immigration, you're gonna really begin to have a decline. So one way of solving the job or the job with the housing crisis is to build more jobs or to build more houses. The other one is to have fewer people who need houses. We don't I don't think people realize this, but that's our solution. We're just gonna have a declining population.
And to anticipate what that means, you have to go to Europe to see most of the countries in Europe have a 1.3 number, not a 1.6 number. China has a 1.1 number, and Korea has a point eight. So you're seeing, obviously, lot of unoccupied housing in China in part because of mobile building, but in part because there's nobody the population is now stalled and starting to decline. You're seeing nursery, kindergarten schools closing all across Korea. There's nobody to go to them? So that's one. Second is aging populations. In The US, Eleven Thousand Five Hundred people go on to Medicare every day. Third is generational mindset shifts.
66% of baby boomers like me believe in capitalism. Twenty two percent in gen of Gen z believe in capitalism. Sixty seven percent of Gen z who have a full time job have a side gig or side hustle, and 76% of Gen z wanna work for themselves. Nobody talks about that. They're talking about going back to the office, which is the biggest red herring in the entire world. It's got nothing to do with the future of work. Okay? So that's how this starts. Then it talks about technology. Obviously, those exist where I bring up not just AI, but I bring up Blockchain and XR, which is new ways of communicating.
Then the rise of, marketplaces, which enable this, you know, whether it's Fiverr, Upwork, Shopify, Etsy, whatever it is. It allows you to both get a gig and buy a gig, if that makes sense. Then, obviously, the rise of the gig workers. So this year, more people will also work freelance as will have a full time job. And finally, the impact of COVID, of which where you worked was the least important impact of COVID. What you thought about your boss and why you worked was the most impactful. And we've entered an age of debossification when no one told the bosses that. And people are basically asking, wait a second. I had a pretty good life.
The company did well. I had bunch of flexibility. Now why am I going back to this person who's trying to control me? Check-in. Monitor. So you take those five, which obviously intertwined, and work will never be the same again. And that's the central thesis of the book that we should be rethinking everything. And then the rest of the book has two sections. One, which is what we should do right away, and then the other is to anticipate what the world will look like in 2029.
[00:07:59] Shawn Yeager:
And and, again, but no spoilers. But, can you can you give us a hint of what that Sure. What that near future looks like? So there are two things. So right now in the near future, when people say, alright.
[00:08:12] Rishad Tobaccowala:
What should I do both as a talented person or as a leader or as the head of HR or someone who wants to launch a company? The answers are for all four of those. Every one of those has to think about doing four things differently right away. So my stuff is just don't wait. You have to do it right away. So the first one is stop thinking about a new type of employee if you're in a company. Put into force not just a right now, most companies have three types of employees, full time, freelance, and a contract employee. So contract employee is an employee of another company that you actually take home. I believe it's gonna be time for a fractionalized employee. So fractionalized employee is someone who works 60 or 80% of their time, get 60 or 80% of their full benefits, which also basically includes equity bonuses, but a % of health care. And this allows companies to basically, a, leverage up and down their talent in an AI age without laying off people, recognize that people have additional things they'd like to do besides work all the time, or they may need to because of children, aging parents, or other things.
So we have a system that refuses to acknowledge that today your choice is you are an employee of a company or you're not. Why? Okay. We talk about agility and flexibility. Why? Second is what do we all need to do in a world where knowledge is free and human intelligence is quite useless. So in a AI age, what do you do? Oh, so you don't say HI plus AI. I said, listen. AI is better than HI. You don't need AI plus HI. Okay? Don't be ridiculous. That's, like, a silly thing. You do need an HI, but that HI is things like human ingenuity, human inventiveness, human interaction, human integrity, those kinds of things.
Because very much to the theme of your podcast, I believe the big differentiating advantage we trust. Okay? Third is to rethink the office. So my basic belief is I am a big believer in in person interaction for some of the office, and why should it happen three days a week? Why can't you basically pull everybody together for two weeks, a quarter in an exotic location? It's more cost effective. It's cheaper. It's more impactful. Why are you doing it this way? Right? And finally, one of the reasons you're doing it this way is because many people are bosses and managers and no longer leaders. So I talk about how do you become a leader versus just be a manager.
So learn to lead versus manage, rethink the office, think about AI and human interaction, and come up with a new type of employee or try to be a new type of employee. So those four are what companies, individuals, talent, people should do now. And then the last five chapters are particularly interesting because they basically say, how would you now rethink everything if all what I've just said is true? So what I've said is the world we have is right here. Right? Okay. Do these right away just to survive. But now to thrive, what do you need to do? So now which you need to buy a little bit of time to, like, rethink everything. Right? So in there, I begin by saying, have you thought about that every firm's strategy should change? Because if firms really are about providing products and services, but the vehicle of production is the worker or the work?
And if that is fundamentally changed, could it be that the strategy of the firm changes?
[00:12:15] Shawn Yeager:
And I believe, as, Rishad, as you noted, 70 to 80% of at least US firms are now service firms? Service firms. Yeah. So big, big deal.
[00:12:24] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Second is how do you restructure the entire organization where increasingly most of the people who get the work done aren't gonna be full time employees. They're gonna be just in time employees, fractionalized employees, contract workers, etcetera. So that model is very much like a model of the movie studio business, where very few people are in the movie studio, people work on the projects, and they're all fractionalized people who come in and work on the project. They do most of them get insurance through their union. K? So they have a % union, but they get paid for when they work. And when they work, they get you know? So it's it's sort of a very strange fractionalized employee in that space. And then it is how do you retrain the entire workforce? Because when when you're gonna go from being doing this to that, it's not gonna be some immaculate conception that you suddenly get born into this new role. You have to learn. Okay? So when a company says, I have a new strategy, I said, okay. Show me your new training program, and show me what your incentive program looks like. If you don't have an incentive program that aligns people with a new strategy and you don't have a training program, you don't have a new strategy. You basically have a website and a deck. That's all you got. A wish and a prayer. Right.
And and then, you know, towards the very end of the book, I also measure talk about finance, which is you have to measure things differently. As we went from the analog to the digital age, a lot of our measurements changed. And in this particular age, if your cost structure is primarily outside, most of your stuff is about cloud compute. Right? It's about plug and play and a whole bunch of other things. The economics will be different, both cost economics, productivity economics. And the final chapter basically anticipates what the future of work ecosystem will look like. And in there, I basically say that they'll be most companies will have far fewer employees than they have today, and the ecosystem will be a bunch of whales, like a NVIDIA Taiwan semiconductor, a Google, you know, Eli Lilly, bunch of whales, Walmart, and lots and lots of plankton, which are much more smaller companies.
And the occasional whale and, shark and squid somewhere around. Okay? But it'll basically be this this ecosystem. And and as a result, most people will be working for far smaller companies, which could be a company of one, in a far more liquid marketplace. And what some of those are and how would you have to think about and lead in that. So people have read the book, and the book has done very well. It's out about three months. It's selling very well. And feedback that I've got is a lot of people, after they read the book, recommended and sometimes buy a lot for their firms.
Okay? Their leadership of their firm, I just spoke to a firm where two of their top people, not the very top, but very like, the head of data and the head of AI, which are two different people, read my book, talked to their boss who runs all of data and AI in this huge company. And then yesterday, I talked to the 50 employees, all of whom had been the 50 leaders, not employees. It's a huge company. Massive. All of all of whom had been asked to read the book. Right? And I did a sort of a q and a, sort of on the book. Does that make sense? Fantastic. So more and more, that's basically happening. And I and the other thing that's become really weird is I've been now doing stuff with schools because colleges and schools have said we are preparing people for the future of work, but not for this future. Absolutely not. And my old and they're saying we better tell people this should be this books. I've gone to universities, and and people are sort of doing I'm doing actually a thing on the future of work with Northwestern here.
[00:16:20] Shawn Yeager:
No. It's I would I mean, I would tell you tell me. It's existential for higher education. It's existential.
[00:16:25] Rishad Tobaccowala:
It's it's so for higher education, for existing companies, and and so what tends to basically happen is that it ties in very well with my like, you know, my previous book was about restoring the soul of business, taking human in the age of data. But I also have a certain degree of credibility based on my working career. So like I say, I've always had a career. The first thirty seven years, I had a job. The last six years, I haven't had a job. I'm still working. I still have a career. Right? But the difference is, don't say I've retired. I'm not retired. I don't have a job. I'm working. I'm traveling.
Right? And in a strange way, I'm actually making even more money than I had when I had the highest job. Okay? Fantastic. You're you're you're living you're living the outcome that you're writing about. Right. And so my stuff is it can be perfectly done, and I was doing it also inside the company. And I don't believe, like, it's about exceptions that you don't want us unique or rare or My old basic belief is you can get where you wanna get. It takes a little bit of time. You can't suddenly decide you wanna do it. But the reality is I'm now lining this Bunsen burner under people's butts, saying take charge of your own career. Don't listen to Carrie Underwood who says Jesus, take the wheel. You take it.
[00:17:40] Shawn Yeager:
Okay? Be being here in Nashville, I will,
[00:17:43] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I will take a yeah. Right. You right. So you take the wheel, okay, of your career. Absolutely. Which basically means plot at how you position yourself for this new world. Absolutely brilliant. And trust runs through it because, obviously, you know, modern companies will run-in part increasingly on, like, there'll be parts of it on blockchain. Mhmm. But trust will become the currency and an AIA.
[00:18:07] Shawn Yeager:
Well, and in fact, that takes me perfectly, Rishad, to my next question. So in in restoring the soul of business Right. I'd love this. You call trust the currency of the future. I think you may have just noted that. And and you warn that, quote, data without a soul is like a body without a heart. Yes. And so, now, in what I continually will refer to as the hyper accelerating technologies of AI, how can businesses embrace AI and the seemingly endless data required to harness it, while keeping a human touch? So the three
[00:18:43] Rishad Tobaccowala:
beliefs I have, which I am sharing with firms, is the first is AI will not be a differentiator for any firms or most firms. It might be a differentiator for Google or something like that, but it's unlikely to be differentiated for almost every other firm outside of the company. That is that in the sense that it will become table stakes? Is it Yeah. So I'm sorry. Is there already baseline requirement? In about a couple of years, it's gonna become table stakes because it's gonna basically be let's suppose you're running a company, Sean, and I'm running a company, and you pitch a client and I pitch a client.
And the reason you claim that you are better than me is because you use electricity.
[00:19:25] Shawn Yeager:
Right. Right.
[00:19:26] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Okay. So your client will ask you. Last I saw, Rashad was not sitting in the darkness by candlelight. I think his company uses electricity too. So when people go in and say, you know, here's how we're gonna differentiate with AI. Tell me who isn't going to use AI. Mhmm. Like, who? Which company isn't gonna use it? And by the way, this AI that they use all come from the same separate companies. So don't tell me that you got a difference. Like, your electricity isn't better than my electricity. Right. Okay. Now what you build on top of that electricity is where the differences are. The web, mobile, all these other waves. So, therefore, my whole thing is, a, embrace AI, adapt your company to AI, and then find complementary things that you build on top that differentiate you. Right? But in addition to embracing and adapting and complementing, don't just focus on efficiency and effectiveness.
Think about the existential risk and opportunities to reimagine your entire business. So my firm is, first of all, AI is not gonna be a differentiator. Second is embrace it, adapt the workflows, and complement both as individuals and companies. But when we're looking at outcomes, just don't think about how AI will make your current business more effective and efficient. Think about how you could reimagine your entire business. Just like digital did not save the New York Times because it made the trucks run faster and the printing presses run faster. The New York Times reinvented its business to not be a paper based business, a page one driven based business, and even based a news based business. They reimagined their business completely.
So most of the companies are basically not reimagining their business. They're writing an AI strategy versus rethinking their entire strategy for an AI agent.
[00:21:20] Shawn Yeager:
And and if we drill in a bit on that, you you coined I believe you coined the term DigiLog. The the,
[00:21:29] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Yeah. A mashup of digital and analog data and intuition. Yeah. And and basically, what I basically said is there is a thing called digital leakage where everything comes together. Okay? And and and we're in this particular world that it's happening. But now now in many ways, like, as Harabolo started a digital agency thirty years ago, it's almost like digital is now sounds like a typewriter.
[00:21:54] Shawn Yeager:
Absolutely. It's anachronism at this point. Right? Yeah. Well, and and so and I you also call out the which I particularly liked, that that if I understood, DigiLog was DigiLog is a guide, a cautionary tale in some ways to help others avoid what you call data blinded outcomes like robotic customer service. And so for companies who are going to, as you say, absolutely have to increasingly embrace AI in, let's say, customer service or customer engagement. What are you advising them to do to ensure that it strengthens rather than erodes trust, which I think is is a fear that that many have?
[00:22:33] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I think that two or three things one has to do. One is a, Jess gotta make absolutely sure that any interaction that your company does with a customer or a member or any people, a, definitely, will have to leverage and utilize state of the art AI, not just because of cost savings, but because it's the best way to get them the answers that they need. Right? But what they need to be able to do is the way they serve up the answer, the experiences, and the interface. So in many ways, the interface of the conversation will become the brand. User experience is everything. Right. So user experience and a sort of an experience stack is one. Second is when they want, you include a human in the loop very quickly.
Okay? But you don't have to have a human in the loop unless they ask for human in the loop. Because in many cases, I don't want any human in the loop. You know, so there are a lot of places where you don't want a human. But often when you want a human, they make it impossible to find it. Right? So if you go to a website looking for a number to call, you have to hunt and peck like a mad person. Mhmm. Okay? And my old stuff is you gotta make it very easy for a human to be in the loop fast, but also recognize that interface, experience, design. But underlying it all will come back to what I believe is very, very important, and obviously, you've named your entire podcast about it, is trust.
I truly believe that trust and integrity, okay, are very, very important. And you might say, aren't they the same thing? They're somewhat similar but different. So let me tell you what that is. Trust is what somebody earns, but usually trust is what I need to feel about you as a brand. Okay? But the way you end up being a trustworthy brand is making sure that you're operating across every area with integrity. And and integrity to me, the best definition of integrity, is when you what you say, what you believe, and what you do, all are completely aligned. K? So what you say, what you do, and what you believe.
And if you don't do that, you are not don't have integrity and nobody will trust you. And one of the key things is a big part of integrity, which is a a new thing I've added to what you say, what you believe, and what you do. And it's unfortunate I've had to add this, but this has been my big insight over the last few months or years. Is Is it true? Okay. So my basic belief is the following. You could behave, say, and believe that vaccines are not good. But it's not true. Okay? So there is no integrity. Because, yes, you are in in you're consistent, but you are not consistent with the world of science. And my basic belief is, if you are anti science, I want you to defecate in the outdoors, not use flushes.
Okay? Don't use cars. Don't use electricity. Science, you either accept or do not accept. Science is not like I want it and I feel like it and I don't feel like it. And science doesn't care, by the way, about you. You can tweet that you don't believe in gravity. I can jump out of my window here and die. So get over it. Okay? And part of what I believe and what I truly believe in trust, leaders are losing their trust in America because they're not saying truthful things. Oh, indeed. They're not behaving with integrity. Okay? So I'll give you a statistic, and this gives you an idea of trust, tax, and the world we live in. Less than two weeks ago, I was speaking to 40 c level executives from a variety of banks, big banks, small banks, you know, sort of regional banks.
And there were two of us, and I was basically talking about my topic was really about broadly about change management, how to have influence when you aren't the key thing. Like, in banks, you know, there's different people. And another gentleman was basically from a company I won't name, but very, very well regarded company, was basically sharing data. He works with banks, sharing data. He's the executive vice president. And he had shared his presentation with me, and I'd said what I was doing because we were each presenting and then we're gonna be on a panel. So we wanted to make sure that it looked like one piece. Right. Right? What we were doing, and we complimented each other.
And we did. But his presentation, which he shared with me over the web, but then in person when it was the same presentation, he put he said a thing, a line before he started. And the line he said was, I'm about to show you some data. This is not a political statement. So I asked him later why did he do that. He said his company made him do that because what he would because they just wanted it's just very much like you you know, you put up some earnings reports and say these are forward looking statements. Mhmm. K. So what were the three facts that he actually He said. He said a lot of things, but the three big facts themes were before the end of this decade, women will control 40% of America's wealth.
And in many categories like automobile, they themselves are responsible for more than half the purchases. Automobile sales. New automobile sales, 51% women. Again, the second largest no. The the fifth largest country in the world and the economy in the world is frauds. Equal to that is the Hispanic population of The United States. Seventy Eight Percent of those were born in The United States. Three. Baby boomers are the biggest, not baby Gen z is the biggest group of people now in the workforce starting this year as baby boomers age out. 49% of Gen z identify themselves as non Caucasian. Okay? So what he's basically said, the future is women, Hispanic, and non Caucasian to a large number of bankers who are older.
[00:28:49] Shawn Yeager:
I do know that demographic.
[00:28:51] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Right? And my basic belief, my statement was, do you understand how regardless of what you you're not believing with each other, how you're losing an entire generation who are basically looking at you as your strip companies out of debt diversity, equity, and inclusion. Right? Keep talking about macho and hardcore. Right? Who thinks anybody who's brown should be sent off to, you know, whatever, El Salvador? Do you understand how you're destroying your companies? You are not leaders. You are people with marshmallow minds and jujubes minds. That's what trust is. That's what truth is. That's what integrity is. And that way, it's in addition to being obviously a technological thing with blockchain and an organizational thing with the future of work, it's also about individuals.
Right? And I can tell you, if you have trust and you have integrity,
[00:29:50] Shawn Yeager:
you can take over the work. Absolutely. And I think I think, you know and I could I'm I'm imagining a fractal conversation where I would love to spend hours, and I could, genuinely, exploring how do we land on truth? How do we land on, you know, I'm I'm recalling a study. I would be hard pressed to to name the the source at this point, but where they discussed Gen Z taking the approach of quote, magpying the truth, which is to echo, you know, to make a call in response to their peers to effectively land on the truth. And there's so many fascinating questions. But I'll go here, Rishad. You also have described trust as a good housekeeping seal for brands in a tech heavy world.
If we talk about decentralization with regard to technology, peer to peer platforms, it could be bitcoin, it could be whatever. How do you see this shifting the power balance with businesses? And by that, I mean, do you see that it returns some of the power to the individual, to the consumer? Or or really with the case of AI, is it just that it will it will sort of re centralize back to the biggest firms, the biggest brands?
[00:31:06] Rishad Tobaccowala:
So I'm gonna provide you a perspective. And in this particular perspective, unlike the rest of my book, which is substantiated with data. This one has less doesn't that isn't necessarily doesn't have data to support it, but it doesn't have that enough of the data to support it. So this is a little bit more built on my lessons from history than actual facts. But the facts are this is what's happened in the past. Right? So I believe that every advance in technology places a premium on talent, that every time technology has increased. And one of the reasons why today, all over the world, not just The United States, United States may be a little bit more extreme, there is certain inequality of outcomes is primarily because if you and I were playing or I and Serena Williams was playing tennis, and both of us were using the old Bilson rackets from the nineteen seventies, she would still beat me. And if I basically use the modern racket, she would still beat me, but with a little less deal.
But if both of us were now using the modern racket, she would beat me much more than when we were both using the old racket. Because I believe technology is the leverage that allows David to bring down Goliath. Mhmm. And if you believe that talent is David and capital and companies are Goliath, my basic belief is this is the Goliath's last straw. So right now, here's what's basically happening. There is currently and the new and the Wall Street Journal had this article, and I was about to put it on LinkedIn with some screen against it, but decided against it. Okay? Where they talked about everyone saying, okay, to the talent, the economy is softer. I can replace you with AI.
Stop being a crybaby. Come back five days a week. Do this. Otherwise, you're completely replaceable. K? So So first of all, that's not the way to treat anybody because in effect, they'll remember when again the success circumstances changes. But the truth of the matter is what you're just reminding people is why they should not trust you, not believe in you, not follow you. That's all you're doing. And this is basically not one built on forward looking anything. It's built basically on the last cry of the dinosaurs before they die. Okay? So all this thing about macho and, you know, hardcore and all this bullshit is a total lack of imagination as to where the world is going. Because in effect, I believe technology gives us all godlike power. And, yes, you can talk about surveillance state and this state and that state, but what has tended to basically happen is, yes, Has Meta and Google and Amazon made a lot of money? Yes. But has it also enabled many creators, developers, businesses?
Yes. Right? So there's never a, like, it's all clean. But what I would basically say is, would you rather live in today's ecosystem than one before smartphones, before Amazon, before Google, before Mara, before breakthroughs in GLP one drugs, before. My whole stuff is like, what are you talking about? Right? But keep going backwards. You might as well live in the Greek times. They were fantastic. People would have great conversations, but they also happen to be slaves. There was no indoor plumbing. You know, people forget all of that. They just take one thing, and then they expect everything else to be static, which it which it isn't. So one of my basic beliefs is that in this new world, power is moving to talent versus capital.
And primarily because of this, you can today start, and there are companies I would anticipate by the end of next year that will have a billion dollars of revenue with less than a hundred people because of AI, because of marketplaces, because of all kinds of stuff. Right? You You can have a hundred employees. I can touch another thousand. But I can only have a hundred employees in my company. I can use modern AI, modern systems, plug and play, and I can build a billion dollar revenue, not even billion no. Forget about billion dollar market cap. Billion dollar revenue company.
Now in that particular world, explain to me why talent doesn't matter. Right? In a world where, basically, I have a full time job I don't like, but I can simultaneously do all kinds of other stuff in the evenings, afternoons, or when nobody's watching, on Etsy, Shopify, Fiverr, whatever I wanna basically do. Tell me how that is about talent. The reality of it is many of the leaders of the world, including America, are spending too much time in their private jets doing incestuous thinking with each other. I recently talked to 40 CEOs and I said, you know something?
Let me tell you that in the future, the only way to win is to think like an immigrant. Okay? And I said, here's what immigrants do. We are, a, all immigrating into the future. So we're all immigrants. So you are immigrants too. Immigrants think like outsiders. You all think like insiders. Immigrants think like underdogs. You think like overdogs. Immigrants think with a future focus. You're looking at the quarterly results. I'll beat you anytime. Just give me a little bit of time. Right? You talk to them like this and you realize that they are very scared of themselves. Certainly. Every senior leader is questioning about irrelevancy. All this hocus pocus bullshit hides underlying insecurity.
That is because they are too they talk about change, but they themselves don't change. Right? And and there's where trust comes in. In this particular world, I think a combination of these wide networks, like, in addition to my book, I write a substack where I reach more CMOs and CEOs than AdEdge or Adweek too. Right? Sitting by by myself at home. It's all free. Fantastic. I think you're at about 30,000 subscribers. Is that right? Yeah. Yeah. But but it was 30,000, but it's got, like, hundreds of CEOs, CMOs, etcetera. Right? Who read me every Sunday. I'm not sure they read all of Adweek or anything like that. Right? Excepting when they're mentioned to it. So what what tends to basically happen is one of the key things and and I'm talking about real things, not like which account went from one place to the other, which is trivial. Okay. So so one of the key things that basically makes a big difference is every tool today gives me power.
Yes. Does it also provide because of data, like a surveillance state and everything else? But I don't really believe that that the that the future is going to be about capital over talent. I think it's gonna be talent plus capital over capital. But it'll be very easy to relatively get capital because you require much less capital AI age. And there are some industries where you will require a lot of capital. That's why it's just so there'll be these whales. You're gonna require big capital for pharmaceuticals, chip design, you know, things like that. But most other businesses, you don't.
[00:37:51] Shawn Yeager:
Right. And What what about, Rashad? And and, I mean, that that all that's I think it's extremely important with regard to talent, and it's empowering. I mean, as I mentioned, I'm here in Nashville mostly among the creative class, so called. And and, you know, innumerable conversations about what might it mean to own one's own copyright, to own one's own publishing, to have a chance to do better than the Spotifys of the world. On the consumer side, and you've laid out I think very clearly that there will be an accretion of capital, of technology, of power essentially to the largest firms. What about the consumer? What about the individual? What is your take on you know, as I as I led in this question with the ability for the average individual to realize a bit more control, a bit more power?
So this assumes my question, I'm sorry, I'll just quickly say my question is baked with the assertion or the assumption that there is a tremendous power imbalance. Right? That I'm at the will of these large corporations and and can I reclaim some of that power, rather than be forced to trust them effectively?
[00:39:05] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I I believe so. So I think what's basically happening is these things go so I always say the future never comes from the heavens, it comes from the slime. Right? So I began to see the impact. For instance, someone reminded me that 15 ago, I said that Internet technology would break the spine of media companies. Lo and behold. And that's right. But it began with first with newspapers, then it moved up to magazines, then it moved up to radio, and now it's moved up to television. Does it make sense? Similarly, the empowerment that's starting to take place is happening on certain fridges.
So, yes, it's an Andreessen Horowitz company, but I use Substack. And Substack gives me the following three pieces of control. I own my mailing list. I own my subscribers. They don't. I own and can port over my content, and some people have to ghost and beehive and other kinds of things. Right? And if I just and it's free. Those two parts are free. Mhmm. And if I decide to charge, which is I make revenue, they basically get 10% available. About 3% goes to Stripe, and that would go anywhere to Stripe. So it's basically they get 10%. Those are better metrics than thirty, seventy, or even higher, like, with the Apple Store. Mhmm. Right?
So first of all, it's already beginning to say, hey. There's that. The other is now I own all my content, which is very, very important. But as importantly, and this is the very interesting thing, it is generating a massive loss of talent from the big companies to the small companies. So more and more people are leaving the magazines, newspapers, radio. Right? Who is some of the talent that still exists there in doing this? Because you can make much more money, you have much more control, you have much more agency. And one of the things I often remind people is you can probably do both unless your company gets completely weirded out, and some people in the New York Times have. Okay? The New York Times has enough gravitas that can still attract and retain world class people, but the Washington Post can't. The LA Times can't. CNN can't. Okay?
And so to a great extent, what you're basically seeing is control and power is moving to the individual, but it's starting to happen from the smaller things. Just like in that, it starts with writing. But now Substack has add video. Absolutely. Does that make sense? The other one and I was a big believer, and I continue to be a big believer. And you noticed at the end of my first book, I mentioned it. And in my second book, you know, where I talk about technology, I don't just talk about AI. I'm a big believer in blockchain. Okay?
And I remind people I'm a big believer in blockchain because in effect, it is a underlying technology that allows me to basically own my identity and get paid for my data. Okay? And it gives me a whole bunch of stuff. And as it becomes easier and, you know, it goes to this wild thing where nobody cares and okay. It's bullshit. It's not. And, obviously, I'm not talking about meme coins and things like that. I'm talking about the underlying I hope not Rashad. Yeah. Right. Underlying, you know, the underlying technology. But if you if you have all of that, then you can actually do something.
[00:42:19] Shawn Yeager:
And I think I mean, and I, you know, I I almost, feel the obligation to insert a disclaimer for those who are in my circle, who know that, you know, I'm a laser eyed Bitcoin maxi. And so, you know, we we might we might take issue with sort of blockchain as a very expensive database. But but I would I would, you know, perhaps read your your your remark. Don't let me put words in your mouth. More broadly to say, the ability to tokenize, the ability to,
[00:42:47] Rishad Tobaccowala:
to have And and it's coming around. I mean, when you think about it, right, from ten years ago, seven years ago, six years ago. The fact today that there's gonna basically be a stablecoin, which is gonna have US, you know, sort of endorsement. And and and I'll tell you something. If you look at a stablecoin and if you just look at the fact let's say, okay. Forget about everything. As I remind people, look, the reality of it is for many parts of the world, the ability to basically move money without paying Western Union Mhmm. The ability to basically move your dollars quickly.
Right? Or or your piece peso pesos into dollars, which are a little bit stable, used to be. Mhmm. Okay. While you do do other things, makes a thing. And the reality of it is that some of the biggest users of stable coins, etcetera, are companies like Starlink. Like, we look at all the big companies that are basically using it. Okay? So to a great extent, you can it's it's an underlying basis business, but everything that it does, it reduces the cost, it tokenized, that gives me more power. Certainly. Certainly. Okay. And and and that is a huge, huge deal. And it's gonna put major pressure on Mastercard and Visa. It's gonna put major pressure on all these companies because all these companies have basically been built, right, on three arbitrages.
The arbitrage of data, the arbitrage of information, and the arbitrage of size.
[00:44:15] Shawn Yeager:
Certainly.
[00:44:16] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Alright. And all those arbitrages, while important, are going to be continued to be hit and hurt. And the big difference and this is a key thing that I would remind everybody. So yesterday, I spoke to a very large financial firm, very huge. 50 of their top people. Not their top people, 50 of their top people in their data and AI group. And one of the things that they asked, and they all had to read and I just they're all reading my book. And so a question was, since you wrote the book, it's been a year since you touched it. The book only came out three months ago, but the way you know, if you publish with a big house, it's don't touch it for a long time. So it's the last time I edited the book was ten months ago. K.
So it's ten months. What have you got wrong? What have you got right? So I said, I haven't got anything wrong, and I haven't got any I've got most of it is right. I haven't got anything wrong yet. The only thing I've got wrong is how right I was, and it's happening faster. Right? So I said, the thing that I got right, but not the speed is much faster, is how fast AI is moving and disrupting companies. Right? How fast, you know, Blockchain and others are starting to be accepted is faster than I thought. A lot of my stuff is 2029. Now I've moved that up to 2027.
Okay. So that's one. So that's the first thing is and the other one, which I did not get wrong, but I think we've messed it up, is the way companies are reacting to diversity, equity, and inclusion is stupid given all the statistics I've shared in the book. Right? Because in effect, the one thing you don't do, and Elon Musk has proven this, don't piss off your future customers. Seems like sound logic. Don't piss off your future customers. If your future customer is the exact person I'm not saying the reason I don't use the word DI and I don't use any of that, I I just said the words. Diversity, tell me what's wrong with that. Equity, tell me what's wrong with that. And inclusion, tell me what's wrong with that. First, let's talk about that. Right? And by the way and then if I wanna be, like, really, really, like well, give me a couple of drinks, and this is what I tell people.
Okay? Hey. You're Caucasian guy. Diversity, equity, and inclusion is for you. You're gonna be the minority in five, ten years. We're actually putting into place something for you. And that changes the whole thing completely. Right? My own stuff is think. And that's the other problem. Most people have stopped thinking. They just, like I don't know. They slurp from one place, and then they throw up in the other place, so they think that's life. It is an interesting,
[00:46:50] Shawn Yeager:
interesting future that we're that we're running into. And I think
[00:46:54] Rishad Tobaccowala:
yeah, that that again is a is another, sort of fractal conversation. That to trust also, which is that's why I keep saying trust and integrity and part of integrity is, like, is it true?
[00:47:04] Shawn Yeager:
Well and I think, you know, and I think this is this is, not something I'd planned to discuss, but I think it's quite interesting is what motivates it. Right? And I think I think, and I observe that there are a lot of reactions to DEI as a policy matter born of a belief that it is concocted. And by that I mean, and I'm gonna wade in this Sure. Perhaps dangerously, is that it is concocted. It is not authentic. It is a checkbox, rather than and I think you've spoken to this eloquently. Rather than, you know, something that emerges as a core value belief, delivery
[00:47:53] Rishad Tobaccowala:
of of service or product from an organization, from a company. The way I best describe it is the famous writer William Gibson in one of his books. I think it's William Gibson, maybe someone else. He's one of the famous right. But it it so this may not be a William Gibson, maybe someone else who basically said the future is already here, but it's not evenly distributed. Evenly distributed. Absolutely. So I basically believe that while the future is here and it's not evenly distributed, I believe talent is evenly distributed, but opportunity is not. Okay? And my basic belief is if talent is evenly distributed and opportunity is not, if opportunity was equally distributed and talent was equally distributed, right, in most companies, leadership would somewhat reflect the population of the country they were working in.
It doesn't have to be an equal reflection, but somewhat. So my basic belief is if you are two standard deviations away from there, ask why. I'm not saying you can't be standard deviation. Talent is right? But for instance, if you basically are in a you're in in your your company's board has 10 people and all of them are Caucasian white men. And in your country, Caucasian white men is 30% of the population. Should you ask why is this happening? Okay? And you could basically say, well, talent is only for Caucasian white men. We are only selecting talented people. You might believe that. Now in effect, nobody will tell you that that's true. So you're basically saying is because we're not looking hard enough, and we should look hard enough. And by the way, in your company, if then 20% of your of your company happens to be, let's say, women.
Right? Do they feel included in the company when they don't see a single leader looking like them? Those are the things. I'm not saying have a quota system. I'm not saying, you know, the the thing. But the reality of it is is is unless you believe talent is only distributed to Africaners in South Africa, which apparently, you know, between David Sachs and Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, they think. So they are considered to be refugees. I mean, that's the most racist thing I've seen, reverse racism I've ever seen. Okay? And my old stuff is like, that's bullshit. Just because you got a billion dollars doesn't mean you have any brains. You had brains in making one thing, but not your your your brains made you a billion dollars. Your billion dollars doesn't allow you to defecate on everything else which you don't know what you're talking about. Yes.
[00:50:30] Shawn Yeager:
Why I think they are losing trust. That's why they are losing trust. Right. Right. And I think in that Annette, you know, it's interesting. I I don't know if you just happen to know Rishad, a fellow by the name of John Robb, r o b b. If if not, I'll just give a, an accolade to John. I interviewed him a few weeks ago. In fact, it was the first published podcast or episode of my podcast. He talks about, largely the network swarms, the red, the blue, and others. And I think, you know, what bring that, rather brought that to mind, what brings that to mind is that depending on your swarm, depending on your tribe, depending on the pole that you've been drawn to, you will have clearly a very different take on this. Well, if we jump a bit, Rishad, there was a particular Substack article of yours that I really enjoyed called reinvented marketing. And you say the brand is the experience. The experiences are the brand.
Given that, and if we if we look again to AI data, the natural tendency toward the whales in tech and other sectors, I'm thinking today, there was a significant yesterday, today, Coinbase breach. I don't know if you saw that news. There's a video out from, from Brian Armstrong, the the CEO of the company. Data breaches are almost darkly comically common. We all get these emails, saying, hey. Fantastic. You know, we're gonna give you six months of free credit rating, credit monitoring. And, oh, by the way, you know, all of your PII has been leaked. So the question in it is this, what does that look like with accelerating technologies like AI? Do you see it getting worse?
Is it now just a, normative sort of state of affairs? What does that do to the future of trust in consumer trust with with large brands?
[00:52:28] Rishad Tobaccowala:
So I think it it is probably gonna get worse in the near term for a couple of reasons. One is because many of the current ways of discovering, whether it's me, whether it's visual or voice, can now be replicated by the machines.
[00:52:46] Shawn Yeager:
Trivially.
[00:52:47] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Trivially. Right? There is some risk, but it hasn't yet happened, and I don't think it will. I don't understand the mathematics of it. But people have said, you know, could the underlying, you know, technology, Satoshi's technology be, like, attacked? Could someone get, like, 51 dominance or whatever they Absolutely. Yes. You're correct. Now that that is the greatest great fear. Right. So and with quantum computing, with AI, will that actually happen? So I what I do believe is there are a few things, which is one, is, you know, it's very much the whole ideas, you know, consumer beware, bio beware.
Mhmm. I believe that we have to basically assume that unless proven you know, in in the world of, you know, in the world of law, you are innocent until you're proven guilty. I think in the future world, you're gonna have to prove you're innocent because you have to basically assume that if there is an interaction and it even is slightly as something you don't know or even feels different, it's guilty.
[00:53:57] Shawn Yeager:
Okay? Mhmm. And the phone And if I hear you if I hear you correctly, Rishad, what you're saying is from the standpoint of the individual, the consumer, the person, I must assume this artifact, this this video, this is is is fake, and I have to I have to discern. I have to discern. I've gotta basically it is fake unless
[00:54:17] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I am now finding reasons for it to be true
[00:54:20] Shawn Yeager:
versus I accept it as truthful. Right? Do you have do you have a take on how we go about that? I mean, that's a that's a perhaps a far reaching question. But So I'll I'll I'll give you sort of an an an indicator. Right? So right now, on my
[00:54:33] Rishad Tobaccowala:
while we were talking, I received two texts. K. One was a translation of a phone voice message, and one was a text from Coinbase, okay, which you may be getting also all the time. And this is before any of this, which basically says, you know, this is your code. This is what you need to do. Just like all these, like, hackers and spam. Phishing attempts. Right. Voice mail is from the Indian consulate basically saying that unless I call them that there's something wrong with my passport. Now what's particularly interesting is the two slight problems here. One is I don't have an Indian passport, so I don't understand why the Indian consulate is calling me. Right? I have a US passport. In India, you don't you can't have both, which is number one. Second is the Indian consulate in Chicago is a friend of mine.
So if there was a Checkmate. Spammer. If there was a particular issue, they could basically call me. Right? So I actually call them back, and I pretend I'm in the Interpol. Okay? And I say I'm from the Interpol. We are tracking everything. We found out your home, your number, and your family. Be very, very careful. I've let ice know. I've let Doge know. I've let everybody else know, and it freaks about. I might imagine that. Okay. And so what you wanna basically do is anything I get from anybody, I automatically basically assume, like, it doesn't sort of work. And so everything I've got is two factor authenticated.
Okay? And so my whole basic belief is if there is a like, that everything has to be sort of two four. And so, for instance, if somebody says check into this, I know everything that's valuable to me is two things auth authenticated. Right? And so the reality of it is I now that sort of happens, but you can still they're getting better and better. So, you know, it's getting better and better. So to a great extent, that that is also why the brands matter so much. And to a certain extent, now what's begun to happen is people are trying to go after the trust brands. So, you know, often, basically, you get something that looks like it's come from Apple and Cupertino.
Right? Yeah. Because the production quality in these emails is going going way up in my experience. It's it's going yeah. And and so the the the the key thing right now is I've started to basically believe that unless I initiate something, I don't trust what's coming at me. Mhmm. I'm not saying I don't trust everything that's coming at me. It come up. Right? But my old stuff is, like, anything that is asking for information, I don't trust. Okay? A yeah. Yep. If if some someone asked any information, whether it's a login, a credit card, my own stuff is okay. This is fishy.
Because, by the way, whoever this person is already has that.
[00:57:15] Shawn Yeager:
So Apple has my credit card. Apple has right? So what are they calling me for a credit card number for? Absolutely. And let me let me ask you a a question based upon that. And I don't know that you necessarily are consulting advising at this level, but I think many, myself included, are concerned with companies responding to an increasing level and sophistication of attack by making everything a KYC activity. And and and, specifically, what I mean is being asked for what to me are seemingly trivial, commercial transactions, for increasing amounts of verification data, photos, passport, etcetera. And then I will just, be that cynical guy. Inevitably, their breach did leaks. And so I say that to ask, in your engagement with these senior leaders, is that a point of conversation or is it taken that this is the future? That k y you know, sort of the ultimate KYC is coming and we've just gotta keep piling more data and to reduce risk on the company's staff.
[00:58:26] Rishad Tobaccowala:
So I think Boris obviously have that problem, but the other one is to a great extent at some particular stage. We're gonna have these, like, trust things. So, you know, increasingly, many companies are using actually Apple or Google or other people as, you know, whether it's a app Right. Wallets or things like that. So I would I would sort of anticipate that there should be maybe six or seven or eight broad KYC type of keepers. Like, for instance, I went through the process of getting real ID. Okay? And I can say, okay. So if if I have this real ID, the government of your state has verified and checked four pieces of information, which should be enough for any KYC person. Right?
They have basically insisted that you bring to them your passport or your naturalization. No. Your birth certificate so your your passport has to be there. So or your naturalization. So they they say you're a US citizen. Right? Or you you're you're green card material. So you're a legal US citizen or US citizen. They want either because of your passport, if you don't have a passport, they want you to bring your birth certificate. You have to bring your Social Security card. You have to basically bring two sources of an address no later than last ninety days, which include things like either a utility bill,
[00:59:56] Shawn Yeager:
something like from a government or quasi government My my wife is an immigrant, and it is a, a seemingly never ending cycle. But please go ahead. Yeah. So I'm deeply familiar. So so so I went through that little
[01:00:10] Rishad Tobaccowala:
drama, which I had fortunately, I had I had everything, so I went through it. I waited in line. The whole thing took ninety minutes, and I was done. Now that particular stage that they have that, they should be able to validate a lot of things for me in the future. Like, my old basically, I got this card, and I got this passport. So stop asking me stupid questions. Okay? And forget about passport. You you this is my driver's license. Mhmm. You don't need anything else, bro. You you I'm a US citizen. Do I live in that address? I live in that address. Right? Is that my silly picture? It's my silly picture. What more do you want? So my whole thing is, to your point, there comes a point where over engineering destroys everything.
Okay? And that is part of what is happening with, like, say, KYC is because the everybody's trying to do KYC, and I'm not sure they're trying to do KYC. So here's my sinister belief. Remember, I said Please. Right? I believe they're trying to do KYCs to get more information for their databases. It's got nothing to do with security.
[01:01:11] Shawn Yeager:
Oh, I I would argue that's not sinister. It is it is, a a a logical conclusion.
[01:01:17] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Yeah. And because now all of them have basically said we can't trust any so what's really interesting is every organization that works with every organization doesn't trust every organization. Okay? Health care. Let's let's look at health care in The US, for example. Let's look at it. Alright. But it's for but it's for our benefit. Right? It's for our but but here's what's basically happened. At the at the big what I anticipate, and I'm looking at this, and this is one of the reasons why I think coming back to, like, trust and rethinking work are all connected.
So I believe I I have three beliefs. I believe that everybody's job, 50% of it is real and 50% of it is bullshit. Okay? Of the 50% that's bullshit, half of it has to be done because we're working with human beings. So you have to spend at least 25% of your time doing stupid stuff just to keep relationships going and things like that. Okay? As long as there's human beings in this drama, it's fine. So that's okay. And 25% is pretty useless. Okay? And I always tell people if you don't have time to learn, take it from that 25%. That's not helping anybody. Mhmm. Don't take it from sleep. Don't take it from your family. You got two hours every if you work if you have a eight hour day, there's two hours that is useless. Go get it hour of work. Reclaim that. Okay. That's that's one. But the second one, to a great extent, is so when you actually think about it and then modern technology allows you to disrupt major industries. I believe that in many, many industries, this fits fifty, sixty, 70 percent fact.
Okay? Which includes, by the way, in industries like pharmaceuticals and the whole medical establishment. Because my basic belief is why do you have 20% of GDP and we have such bad outcomes? Yes. Okay? Yes. And so so the reality of it is what have they been protected? So I went to the University of Chicago. The University of Chicago is a deeply capitalist place. Certainly. You are now writing books called Saving the Capitalism from Capitalists, which was the first book that came out ten years ago. Because what we often have in America is there's two types of capitalism.
In some cases, we've got real capitalism. Some cases, we have mediated capitalism. And increasingly, we have crony capitalism. Okay. And crony capitalism is when capital takes over government. And capitalism at its base is about competition. But increasingly, what we're doing is more and more of our businesses don't have competitors. Or they'll have another competitor who they meet at some club and they basically,
[01:03:51] Shawn Yeager:
in a nice way, wink at each other. Absolutely. Or they license each other's technology at that point. They're they're indiscernible.
[01:03:57] Rishad Tobaccowala:
And so what is basically happening is you're gonna see this massive explosion. And so a lot of the job infrastructure of America is also built on this bullshit. Okay? And as technology comes, that bullshit's gonna end. Work and problems and opportunities and experiences are gonna be huge. And, therefore, there's gonna be a lot of work, but they're not gonna be any jobs. And what tends to basically happen is in the end, I tell an individual, like, someone says, okay, Rashad. You know, you're now on Medicare. You have got out retired, and you're an idiot. Okay. So we are young, and you're talking bullshit stuff. Like, what are we supposed to do? So I said, look. You do the same thing I'm doing. Okay? I said, I I'd like to hopefully work health holding for another ten, fifteen years. So if that's true, I gotta do I gotta stay current. I can't, like, say I did this five years ago or three years ago. Matters no not not much to people. So what I did in the past matters to some extent, but I said, you have to learn how to operate like a company of one. Mhmm. Okay? And in that, it isn't I mean mine. I said, what is a company of what? Hone, architect, and scout the craft and stay at the top of your game. Because people will hire for expertise.
They're not gonna hire for experience. Second, have a ability to collaborate because we're gonna have to work with other people or alien machines or whatever it is. Third, have a great reputation built on trust and integrity. Okay? You do those three, you will succeed in the future. So it comes down to reputation and trust, highly important. And that's a theme song that I run through everything. Because interestingly, it's both technologically aligned and human aligned. Yes.
[01:05:38] Shawn Yeager:
Yes. And and in doing so, you have effectively answered my my closing question. But I'd like to ask it anyway because I feel like we could probably go deeper. I mean, Rashad, your work, you have helped guide businesses through waves of change across decades. And I know that from your background. As you say, balancing technology with human values. Maybe this is a glimpse to your next book. But if we look out beyond 2029 and if it happens sooner, then all the better. But what's the boldest shift that leaders should make to weave trust into the fabric of their organizations given, as you say, that it is the currency of the future? I believe that
[01:06:20] Rishad Tobaccowala:
leaders need to, a, be very clear that they themselves are vulnerable to change, and therefore, they themselves as individuals are in the process of reinvention. K? So you basically say, I am reinventing myself in order to remain relevant. If you ask any leader with enough alcohol in them, they'll say that they're struggling to figure out whether they're still relevant. So why don't you tell people, I now have to invest in my time, in my learning, in how I do and what I do. Can I have all of you also help me remain relevant? That is number one. You start with that. Second is you communicate in ways that in every interaction, you leave people with clarity, energy, and belief.
Clarity, I know what I just got said. Energy is I get more energized by this even if I have to do a lot of work. Mhmm. And belief is I believe myself and I trust the person who just told me. Okay? Number three is recognize that the future comes from the slime and not the heavens. And that doesn't mean you go hang hang around the slime, but always think that you don't know where you're going. And that's my thing about think like an immigrant. So think like an outsider. Think like an underdog,
[01:07:46] Shawn Yeager:
and think with a future focus because that's what immigrants do. Fantastic. Would would you say I'll I'll throw a part b. I mean, I I might imagine that much of that has always been true or or and so much Yep. Of what we need for the future, we learn from the past. Are there going to be different expressions?
[01:08:07] Rishad Tobaccowala:
Are there going to be different skill sets? There will be new skill sets. There'll be expressions. I think the new skill sets are going to basically be what I call the six c's. But and so what I basically say is when someone asks me what do you do, so I basically say I use modern technology, and I combine them with old Tradecraft. Traditions. Okay? So what I basically do is I use traditions, which are things like trust and integrity and excellence and all of that stuff. But I use modern technology to express it, update myself, upgrade myself, and connect. Okay? You do both of those. Right. So with that being said, what are these things that I would suggest to people? What they are and they are obviously expressed in completely different ways in this new world. Is the sixties. I call them the sixties.
'3 of them are about you, the individual. Learn to be cognitively updated, so constantly learn. Be creative, which is connect dots in new ways, and be curious, constantly asking what if and why not. But we don't work by ourselves. So the next one is basically find a way to basically, a, be collaborative, b, is earn people's confidence, and three, upgrade your communication skills, writing and speaking. Certainly. Okay? And so if you think about it, if people basically say, I am confident in Sean. Sean is a collaborative person, and Sean is convincing through his communications.
Okay? I I wanna work with Sean. Oh, by the way, Sean is state of the art because he's cognitively updated, put this right? He's connecting dots in new ways. He's telling me things I did not know. And he's willing to question himself in what we're doing, curiously. You come across people like that, you hold onto them for life. Absolutely. Okay? So you say I say and those, by the way, the way you do it will change as technology changes, but those become sort of the six c's.
[01:10:24] Shawn Yeager:
Right. That's a terrific place to to wrap it up, Rishad, and a great set of, a great set of of lessons to learn for those who, undoubtedly will want to read your book. So very much appreciate it. We will look forward to your future articles. And is there a next book? Last question.
[01:10:41] Rishad Tobaccowala:
I don't think so. After I wrote the first book, I didn't think I was gonna write a second one. And then I did because I realized there was this thing of work. I tend to do things in threes. I'm going to do things like I said three points, etcetera. So if there is one, I'm doing this backwards. I know what it'll begin with, the first letter of the title, and I know the color of the jacket. That's all I have so far. That's right. Is my both my books have begun. One is called restoring and one is called rethinking. Yes. One had a white cover, one had a red cover. And this is both for my French and, you know, American. Because I work for a French company and for American. Yes. This one, therefore, has to be a blue cover. Fantastic. We'll we'll we'll know it when we see it. And it will begin with r, and that might be reinventing. But who knows? Outstanding. Well, in the meanwhile, we have your writing on Substack. Thank you again, Rashad. It's been a pleasure. Very much.
Introduction and Book Overview
Decentralization and Unbundling of Work
Five Forces Shaping the Future of Work
Immediate Actions for Individuals and Companies
Rethinking Company Strategy and Structure
Trust as the Currency of the Future
AI and the Future of Business
Power Shift: Talent vs. Capital
Consumer Empowerment and Blockchain
Data Breaches and Consumer Trust
Future of Work: Company of One
Leadership and Reinvention
